***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2012.-02.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 5.4 11.3 82.8 55.3 44.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 7.6 11.8 86.9 58.4 44.8 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.0 10.2 12.0 91.0 58.8 47.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 6.1 14.1 12.9 94.2 60.8 48.7 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.4 12.4 94.6 60.7 49.5 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.6 8.3 12.7 89.3 58.2 48.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.3 11.8 86.5 57.8 44.5 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.2 15.9 14.6 102.1 63.9 53.3 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.8 12.5 95.7 61.1 50.7 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.3 12.8 13.8 98.7 62.4 52.2 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.4 12.2 12.2 97.5 62.1 50.4 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 5.2 14.6 12.9 102.3 63.9 52.3 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.1 10.7 12.5 92.1 59.2 48.5 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.2 14.4 93.1 60.1 49.8 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 18.0 13.9 101.7 64.4 50.3 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.1 10.3 11.9 93.2 60.1 48.6 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.3 7.5 11.1 82.9 57.4 44.4 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 13.3 15.5 98.4 62.5 53.3 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 8.2 11.8 87.4 58.3 45.3 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 15.3 19.1 96.0 62.1 53.1 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.2 9.7 11.8 89.2 58.0 47.5 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 3.2 8.1 11.3 82.1 56.9 44.1 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.1 12.3 89.7 58.8 46.8 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.7 14.1 97.6 61.9 52.1 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.6 12.6 84.0 56.2 45.6 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.4 8.5 13.8 97.1 61.7 49.8 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.5 7.9 12.1 81.1 54.7 44.0 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.2 13.5 12.7 96.4 61.9 49.2 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 16.8 18.2 16.7 95.1 61.4 52.8 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.0 11.9 88.3 58.3 45.1 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------