***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2012.-09.12.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 10.1 11.9 91.5 60.5 48.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.9 10.5 84.1 58.8 47.7 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.2 11.6 89.4 59.8 48.9 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 11.7 12.9 98.3 63.1 51.2 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.0 10.3 12.5 93.8 60.7 51.3 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 7.6 9.9 13.2 108.3 66.3 55.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.1 10.5 84.4 58.9 48.2 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.9 13.0 91.1 59.5 51.0 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.0 12.5 91.9 59.5 51.4 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.3 12.7 88.8 58.0 50.4 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.1 9.5 11.5 92.6 60.2 51.3 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.1 11.2 11.7 95.4 61.6 52.4 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.8 12.5 99.6 63.2 54.3 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.8 11.1 13.1 85.5 57.0 47.5 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.5 13.6 13.1 106.1 66.7 51.8 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.9 9.8 11.6 96.5 62.1 52.5 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.6 9.8 82.4 58.2 47.2 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 8.6 7.8 13.8 84.3 55.4 48.4 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.9 10.7 84.8 58.7 47.4 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 9.6 17.1 85.7 57.1 48.5 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.7 9.4 12.3 93.0 60.6 50.8 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.4 9.7 10.1 83.4 57.7 46.2 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.5 11.3 86.9 58.9 47.6 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.7 10.2 12.8 86.9 57.0 48.3 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.9 13.2 94.3 61.5 50.5 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.6 12.5 12.9 106.4 65.9 55.3 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.5 12.7 92.1 60.5 49.1 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.5 12.4 101.7 64.5 51.8 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.8 15.0 83.3 55.4 48.0 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.2 10.9 85.5 59.2 47.9 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------