***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 4.6 4.6 5.1 1.4 67.2 66.1 1.7 3.1 4.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 49 51 100 3.7 3.8 4.7 1.4 66.9 65.7 0.5 2.1 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 46 54 100 5.7 6.0 5.3 1.5 68.8 67.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 -0.4 0.7 2.4 1.0 63.2 62.4 -2.5 -0.7 1.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 1.9 2.7 3.4 1.0 62.8 62.1 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.5 56.1 55.8 -0.3 1.0 2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 3.8 4.1 5.1 1.8 71.5 70.3 0.5 2.1 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 90 10 100 -2.6 -1.5 1.4 1.1 64.4 63.7 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 89 11 100 2.8 3.7 3.3 1.0 63.7 62.8 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 2.2 3.1 2.1 1.1 64.9 64.0 0.5 1.9 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 1.8 2.5 2.8 0.9 61.9 61.2 0.1 1.5 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 1.1 1.7 1.9 0.8 60.5 60.0 -0.5 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 91 9 100 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.2 52.3 52.2 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 4.3 4.4 3.5 1.5 69.4 67.9 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 1.8 2.2 3.5 0.6 58.0 57.6 0.4 1.7 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 2.4 2.6 1.7 0.4 55.5 55.1 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 48 52 100 3.3 3.6 4.6 1.5 68.2 67.1 0.7 2.1 3.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.5 69.0 67.8 -0.8 0.4 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 47 53 100 3.6 3.8 4.8 1.4 68.0 66.8 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 45 55 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.8 1.5 67.6 67.0 -3.8 -2.1 -0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 2.6 3.6 4.3 1.0 63.1 62.2 0.7 2.3 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 46 54 100 3.0 3.4 5.0 1.6 70.3 69.0 0.3 1.7 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 3.5 3.8 4.9 1.7 72.4 71.0 0.7 2.1 3.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 45 55 100 3.0 3.2 3.4 1.4 68.8 67.4 0.5 1.8 3.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 2.6 3.5 4.5 1.2 64.7 63.8 1.0 2.3 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 91 9 100 1.6 1.7 1.2 0.4 55.0 54.8 0.3 1.4 2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 3.3 4.6 4.7 1.2 64.7 63.8 0.9 2.9 4.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 0.8 1.1 2.3 0.5 56.2 55.7 -0.7 0.6 1.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 2.0 2.2 1.3 1.5 69.0 68.2 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 4.2 4.5 5.2 1.6 69.3 68.1 0.8 2.5 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------