***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 22 78 100 14.3 15.0 12.9 2.6 76.9 75.4 8.9 11.2 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 8 92 100 13.6 14.6 13.6 3.3 81.6 80.3 7.9 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 14.5 15.1 13.5 2.8 77.2 75.8 8.9 11.2 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 8.5 8.8 9.4 2.3 73.8 72.1 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.2 11.2 2.2 72.5 70.9 9.1 11.3 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 11.3 12.4 9.1 1.3 62.9 61.6 8.8 10.8 12.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 13.3 14.2 13.4 3.2 81.2 80.0 7.8 9.9 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.9 10.3 2.2 70.8 69.1 2.1 3.8 5.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 28 72 100 14.5 15.0 12.2 2.4 74.1 72.6 9.5 11.7 13.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 13.1 13.4 11.1 2.2 70.1 68.7 9.0 11.0 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.2 11.6 2.1 70.6 69.1 9.4 11.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.4 10.8 2.3 73.1 71.3 9.3 11.4 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 13.5 13.6 11.3 1.8 68.2 66.8 9.4 11.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 15.1 15.6 13.1 2.9 75.0 73.9 9.2 11.8 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 11.4 12.4 11.7 2.8 82.1 79.4 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 14.3 14.5 10.9 2.0 69.6 68.1 9.8 12.0 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 13.0 13.8 13.1 3.2 81.5 80.4 7.5 9.6 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.3 12.7 10.9 2.4 71.3 69.8 8.2 10.2 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 14.3 15.2 13.8 3.3 81.6 80.3 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 10.4 10.6 9.3 2.1 68.8 67.1 6.1 8.2 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.4 12.8 2.3 72.8 71.4 9.1 11.3 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 6 94 100 13.8 14.4 13.2 3.0 80.2 79.1 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 14.1 15.0 14.0 3.4 82.0 80.6 8.3 10.5 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 14.7 15.3 12.8 2.7 73.8 72.5 9.7 12.0 14.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 12.7 13.0 11.5 2.1 72.0 70.7 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 12.4 12.6 10.0 2.0 70.8 68.9 8.9 10.6 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 14.0 14.4 12.3 2.4 74.4 73.2 8.9 11.1 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 11.7 12.1 10.3 2.2 74.4 72.3 7.9 9.5 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 10.1 10.4 10.5 2.4 71.0 69.4 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 12 88 100 13.4 14.3 13.5 3.1 80.6 79.3 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------