***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.8 7.9 8.3 -0.7 42.4 44.0 6.7 8.8 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.9 8.6 -0.3 46.3 46.5 6.3 8.4 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 6.9 8.5 8.6 -0.7 42.0 43.9 7.3 9.5 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.7 1.5 4.9 -1.4 35.1 38.8 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.7 6.5 -1.2 37.1 40.7 7.2 9.4 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.9 6.9 5.6 -1.3 36.5 40.6 6.5 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.0 8.0 8.6 -0.2 47.7 47.4 6.3 8.2 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.1 1.3 6.0 -0.9 40.0 44.4 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 7.4 8.7 7.5 -1.0 39.0 42.3 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.4 7.9 6.6 -1.0 39.1 43.1 7.0 9.3 11.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.6 7.9 6.9 -1.2 37.7 41.6 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.1 6.5 -0.9 39.7 43.9 7.2 9.5 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.4 7.0 -0.9 40.2 43.7 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 6.7 8.5 7.8 -1.0 39.7 42.4 7.5 10.0 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.3 6.3 6.5 -1.0 38.4 42.0 5.6 7.7 9.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.4 8.5 6.5 -1.2 37.5 41.2 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.6 7.3 8.2 -0.4 45.5 45.5 5.8 7.8 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.3 6.6 6.5 -1.0 40.1 44.1 5.8 7.7 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.1 8.7 -0.4 45.5 46.1 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 3.4 5.6 5.4 -0.5 44.8 48.5 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.0 8.2 8.0 -1.1 38.1 41.2 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.7 8.2 -0.5 44.3 45.2 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.5 7.9 8.8 -0.5 44.9 45.8 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.2 8.8 7.8 -1.0 39.6 42.7 7.8 10.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.4 7.4 6.8 -1.1 38.3 40.9 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 6.4 8.2 6.3 -0.6 43.1 46.6 7.0 9.0 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 10.5 8.7 7.8 -0.7 41.9 43.4 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.5 6.5 5.6 -1.3 35.6 39.6 6.1 8.4 10.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 5.1 6.2 -0.8 42.1 46.0 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.0 8.6 -0.3 46.2 46.7 6.4 8.4 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------