***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.4 6.8 -0.3 46.8 48.5 5.9 7.7 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.0 6.8 -0.2 47.5 48.5 5.6 7.3 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.3 8.2 7.2 -0.3 46.8 48.3 6.8 8.5 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 3.0 1.7 4.1 -0.5 45.1 46.6 0.5 2.2 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.1 7.9 5.2 -0.4 45.7 47.3 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.6 5.0 -0.2 47.7 48.8 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.0 6.7 -0.2 48.0 48.9 5.5 7.2 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 1.7 4.9 -0.3 47.1 48.7 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.6 6.1 -0.4 46.3 47.8 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.9 5.5 -0.4 46.6 48.2 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.1 5.3 -0.3 46.7 48.1 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.3 5.3 -0.2 48.4 49.4 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.6 5.2 0.0 49.8 50.5 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.3 6.4 -0.5 45.3 46.9 7.0 8.7 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 4.9 6.2 4.9 -0.4 45.5 46.8 5.2 6.6 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 8.9 5.2 -0.2 48.3 49.2 7.3 9.1 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.3 6.6 -0.3 47.2 47.6 4.9 6.5 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 6.9 6.0 5.5 -0.3 47.0 48.7 4.7 6.2 7.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.4 7.0 -0.3 47.3 48.4 6.0 7.6 9.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.9 4.0 -0.2 48.5 50.3 3.2 5.1 6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 6.5 8.1 6.5 -0.4 45.8 47.5 6.8 8.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.8 6.6 -0.4 46.0 46.7 5.6 7.2 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.4 7.3 -0.3 47.0 48.1 6.1 7.7 9.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.3 8.9 6.4 -0.4 46.2 47.8 7.5 9.2 10.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.0 5.3 -0.4 45.7 47.4 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.5 5.2 0.2 51.7 52.1 6.8 8.3 9.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.2 6.3 -0.3 46.5 48.2 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.1 6.6 4.6 -0.4 45.7 46.9 5.4 6.9 8.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.0 5.0 5.0 -0.3 47.4 49.2 3.6 5.3 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.2 6.8 -0.2 47.8 49.0 5.8 7.4 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------