***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.8 8.4 0.3 54.0 53.4 7.0 8.5 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 8.2 8.4 8.6 0.6 58.2 56.6 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.3 8.8 0.3 54.2 53.5 7.5 9.0 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.0 3.3 5.3 0.0 49.4 49.8 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.9 6.7 0.0 49.9 50.0 7.4 8.9 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.9 8.2 5.8 -0.2 47.3 48.1 6.9 8.4 9.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.0 8.3 8.5 0.6 58.9 57.1 6.2 7.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.9 2.5 6.2 0.1 51.2 51.1 1.1 2.4 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.7 7.6 0.1 51.1 51.0 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.3 8.7 6.8 0.0 50.0 50.1 7.3 8.7 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.1 6.9 0.0 50.1 50.1 7.5 9.1 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.3 6.6 0.2 52.8 52.3 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.2 6.7 0.1 51.5 51.2 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.0 9.6 8.1 0.1 51.6 51.3 7.9 9.5 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 7.8 7.5 6.7 0.2 53.8 53.5 6.0 7.2 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.6 6.6 0.0 50.4 50.3 8.1 9.6 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 7.6 7.8 8.4 0.6 58.2 56.4 5.8 7.2 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.3 6.7 0.1 51.2 51.1 6.0 7.3 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 8.6 8.8 8.8 0.5 57.5 56.1 6.7 8.1 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.3 5.3 0.2 52.9 52.9 4.5 6.1 7.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.1 8.1 0.0 50.4 50.4 7.5 9.0 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.2 8.3 8.3 0.4 56.0 54.7 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.7 9.0 0.5 57.0 55.7 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.4 10.0 8.0 0.1 51.6 51.3 8.4 9.9 11.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.5 8.0 6.9 0.0 50.1 50.3 6.6 8.0 9.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 8.9 6.2 0.3 55.0 54.2 7.3 8.5 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 9.4 9.1 7.9 0.2 52.8 52.4 7.5 8.9 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.8 5.9 0.0 49.9 50.2 6.5 7.8 9.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.0 6.3 0.1 52.0 52.0 4.3 5.8 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.4 8.6 0.5 57.6 56.2 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------