***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-18.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 87 13 0 100 2.1 1.4 1.5 13.8 16.8 13.0 3.7 7.4 12.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.8 1.0 10.7 13.5 10.8 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Becej 27400G00 85 15 0 100 2.8 2.0 1.6 14.8 18.5 14.3 4.8 10.0 17.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 84 16 0 100 4.0 3.2 2.3 17.4 20.3 15.6 6.2 11.4 18.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 3.5 3.3 2.4 19.9 23.6 18.2 5.4 10.5 18.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 4.2 5.2 3.3 30.9 32.8 24.7 5.4 10.7 18.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 93 7 0 100 1.8 1.1 1.0 10.3 13.4 10.7 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 5.4 5.9 3.5 25.7 28.4 22.0 7.4 14.4 24.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 80 20 0 100 4.0 3.7 2.4 20.1 23.6 18.2 5.9 10.9 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 75 25 0 100 4.2 4.3 3.5 26.5 28.7 22.5 5.5 11.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 4.6 5.0 2.9 23.1 26.5 20.0 6.8 12.5 20.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 4.5 4.9 2.7 22.0 26.1 19.6 6.8 13.0 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 3.9 5.0 3.7 28.6 30.7 24.1 5.6 11.4 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 83 17 0 100 4.7 4.3 2.4 17.9 21.6 17.0 7.4 13.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 2.3 2.6 2.5 18.9 24.5 17.1 4.4 9.4 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 4.3 4.8 2.8 23.7 27.9 21.2 6.0 11.5 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 2.2 1.2 0.9 9.2 11.6 9.6 4.3 7.7 12.1 30 Palic 37000G16 73 27 0 100 5.4 5.1 3.2 23.3 26.9 21.5 6.9 13.4 22.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 2.0 1.2 1.2 11.9 14.7 11.9 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 72 28 0 100 5.4 5.1 3.7 24.5 28.1 22.4 6.7 13.6 23.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 3.5 2.5 2.0 17.2 20.8 16.1 5.0 9.9 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 93 7 0 100 1.9 1.0 0.9 8.9 11.6 9.7 4.3 8.2 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 88 12 0 100 2.7 1.8 1.5 13.8 16.4 13.3 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 77 23 0 100 3.8 3.1 2.6 20.1 23.7 18.8 5.3 10.6 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 82 18 0 100 2.7 2.1 2.0 15.9 19.9 15.2 4.2 7.9 13.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 3.1 3.2 2.6 21.5 26.1 19.7 4.7 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 86 14 0 100 2.8 2.1 1.5 13.8 17.5 13.4 4.8 9.0 14.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 2.7 2.6 2.6 20.9 24.7 17.9 4.4 9.5 17.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 7.2 7.4 3.2 22.6 26.7 21.3 9.9 17.9 29.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 93 7 0 100 1.5 1.0 1.1 11.0 14.0 11.1 3.6 7.4 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------