***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.11.2018.-25.11.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 70 30 0 100 2.8 6.8 11.6 76.6 50.4 36.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 2.5 5.4 9.3 66.1 47.0 33.9 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.1 7.8 12.2 83.1 54.1 38.3 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 4.3 16.0 18.0 114.1 67.3 45.1 4.3 8.8 15.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.5 10.0 15.2 95.5 60.1 43.2 3.3 6.9 12.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 5.1 15.9 15.3 107.8 65.2 43.9 5.1 9.7 16.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.8 5.2 8.9 63.7 45.3 32.6 3.0 6.2 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.1 19.9 16.4 97.8 61.0 45.8 7.1 13.9 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.6 14.8 95.9 59.9 43.3 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.8 11.0 16.0 99.0 61.2 45.3 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.8 12.0 16.2 101.0 62.0 44.2 3.5 7.6 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 4.3 13.7 15.6 97.4 60.7 43.9 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 4.0 13.5 15.5 97.3 60.5 41.6 4.3 9.2 16.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 5.6 12.1 13.9 79.7 51.9 39.6 5.8 11.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 3.9 21.6 19.7 131.2 73.0 45.5 3.7 8.7 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.6 12.2 15.8 103.1 62.8 42.9 3.5 7.6 13.7 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.8 5.1 8.4 59.6 43.8 31.1 3.1 6.5 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.4 15.5 93.4 58.4 44.2 4.4 8.6 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.4 7.2 10.0 70.7 48.9 35.4 3.8 7.5 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.8 11.7 17.8 84.1 54.5 43.6 4.6 9.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 3.2 8.2 13.5 87.9 55.9 40.5 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 4.2 7.4 8.9 61.2 45.2 32.9 4.8 8.5 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 65 35 0 100 3.1 6.9 11.3 76.2 50.8 37.2 3.4 6.7 11.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 10.9 14.2 89.1 56.3 41.3 4.1 8.6 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 2.9 7.0 13.5 79.9 51.9 38.4 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 4.1 14.3 15.1 94.9 60.0 42.0 4.6 9.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 2.5 5.9 11.7 73.1 48.4 35.9 3.0 6.3 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 4.4 17.3 18.4 124.9 70.9 45.6 4.3 8.6 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 6.8 16.4 15.6 86.6 54.9 43.1 6.4 13.4 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.7 6.3 10.3 72.4 50.0 35.8 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------