***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.11.2018.-02.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.1 12.1 16.8 119.6 69.8 58.9 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.0 15.0 118.7 69.5 58.3 2.9 5.7 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 9.7 15.2 17.1 124.2 71.2 60.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 16.9 17.4 112.5 67.9 58.2 6.4 10.6 16.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.7 13.1 17.0 112.3 67.6 59.3 3.6 7.3 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.7 10.2 15.1 104.7 64.9 54.4 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 10.7 10.5 14.7 117.6 69.3 57.6 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 18.2 17.2 17.7 110.3 66.9 59.0 7.2 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 13.0 12.2 17.6 113.3 67.8 59.9 3.4 6.7 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 16.1 14.8 17.9 111.5 67.1 59.3 4.8 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 14.1 16.2 110.0 66.7 58.7 4.1 8.1 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 17.6 15.6 15.9 108.1 66.1 58.1 4.7 9.1 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 5.1 12.1 15.4 102.2 63.9 54.9 4.8 8.2 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.5 17.5 20.5 123.9 70.9 60.7 4.5 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.2 19.4 16.7 106.2 66.5 55.5 5.1 10.7 19.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 9.9 12.2 15.2 105.8 65.3 56.6 3.8 7.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.8 10.4 14.3 113.8 68.0 56.3 3.0 5.8 9.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 16.3 15.8 19.4 116.7 68.7 60.2 5.2 9.2 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 12.7 12.7 15.6 121.1 70.2 59.3 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 17.7 23.1 111.8 67.2 59.0 5.6 10.5 17.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 40 60 100 13.9 13.6 17.2 116.8 69.0 60.1 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.9 12.6 15.5 117.5 69.1 58.0 3.0 6.3 11.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 7.8 12.4 16.7 123.9 71.0 59.8 2.8 5.9 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.1 16.3 19.2 122.3 70.4 60.8 5.0 9.0 14.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.1 11.3 17.6 112.8 67.9 58.1 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 7.5 9.4 16.1 104.8 65.2 55.5 3.2 5.9 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.9 12.4 16.7 114.1 68.1 57.5 3.5 6.7 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.4 15.4 15.9 107.5 66.5 56.6 5.2 9.4 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 40 60 100 23.0 22.3 20.5 116.4 68.6 60.1 7.4 13.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 11.8 11.8 15.7 121.4 70.3 58.9 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------