***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.12.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 12.3 13.6 17.9 135.0 74.1 58.9 3.8 6.7 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 11.7 13.0 16.4 139.2 75.3 59.0 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 13.1 14.6 17.4 133.8 73.7 58.3 3.3 6.6 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 15.4 17.3 20.2 140.9 75.6 61.7 4.1 7.7 12.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 14.0 15.2 18.8 133.9 73.8 60.6 4.1 7.5 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.7 12.4 17.9 130.8 73.0 59.9 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 11.6 13.2 16.0 138.7 75.1 59.4 3.3 6.1 10.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 16.5 18.7 20.3 136.5 74.5 61.4 4.7 8.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.9 12.0 18.8 129.1 72.4 59.2 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 14.8 19.8 131.7 73.1 60.1 3.8 7.1 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 13.7 15.4 18.6 135.9 74.3 60.9 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 15.6 17.9 18.8 137.9 74.8 61.5 3.3 7.2 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.4 17.2 19.3 136.2 74.4 61.0 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.2 16.6 19.2 120.6 69.7 56.4 4.6 8.9 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.9 20.1 20.7 143.1 76.0 61.1 2.7 6.7 13.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 13.2 14.9 18.8 139.1 75.1 61.5 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 13.9 14.8 15.1 134.1 73.8 58.8 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.7 12.9 19.9 127.2 71.8 58.7 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 12.8 14.1 16.8 138.2 75.0 58.8 4.0 7.0 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 13.9 14.9 25.0 130.6 72.8 59.7 4.5 7.9 12.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 12.4 13.2 18.1 130.7 72.8 58.8 3.9 6.9 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 14.7 15.9 16.2 134.0 73.8 58.5 4.1 7.6 12.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.5 13.6 17.4 134.3 73.9 58.4 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.8 15.3 18.4 125.0 71.1 57.0 4.7 8.3 13.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 10.7 11.3 19.7 134.4 73.9 59.5 3.2 5.7 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 14.5 16.6 19.6 136.1 74.4 60.8 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.7 18.4 133.0 73.5 58.6 3.9 6.9 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 12.7 14.7 19.5 141.7 75.7 61.7 2.4 5.4 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.8 18.2 20.9 125.8 71.4 58.8 5.8 10.0 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 11.4 12.9 17.0 140.1 75.5 59.1 3.6 6.2 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------