***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 08.11.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.11.2018.-09.12.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 24.5 35.7 47.7 89.8 49.7 44.2 24.2 35.9 49.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 24.6 33.6 41.8 86.4 47.5 43.0 24.6 35.5 48.1 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 29.8 45.4 48.3 92.5 51.9 45.9 29.7 43.6 60.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 36.5 57.2 58.0 98.1 56.1 48.0 37.4 51.4 67.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 30.8 46.5 53.4 93.3 52.5 46.8 30.8 44.3 60.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 29.7 50.0 51.6 97.6 55.9 48.0 30.9 44.8 60.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.5 31.9 40.6 85.1 46.9 42.5 23.6 33.9 46.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 73.2 65.6 58.0 94.5 52.8 48.0 43.1 62.2 84.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 28.5 42.8 53.6 93.5 52.3 47.2 28.4 41.0 55.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 57.3 52.1 57.2 94.8 52.9 48.0 35.7 49.6 65.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 31.8 50.7 53.8 95.0 53.5 47.4 31.3 47.0 65.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 64.3 56.3 53.0 93.5 52.5 47.0 36.1 53.6 74.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 29.9 49.3 53.9 92.9 51.7 45.2 30.6 47.4 68.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 43.6 57.3 56.0 88.3 47.8 44.2 43.9 59.7 76.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 36.2 67.8 59.5 102.2 59.6 48.7 37.3 55.6 77.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 29.7 48.8 52.7 95.6 53.9 46.8 30.6 45.2 62.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 27.4 33.8 38.7 81.3 44.0 40.3 27.4 37.6 49.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 59.7 53.6 58.0 92.7 51.6 47.4 38.0 52.3 68.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 48.1 40.1 43.7 88.4 48.8 43.9 29.0 41.0 55.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 65.0 55.8 69.7 91.0 50.0 46.8 38.6 55.8 76.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 28.4 42.1 50.9 91.5 50.9 45.8 28.4 41.3 56.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 49.7 39.4 41.5 82.4 44.3 40.7 31.9 43.4 56.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 46.1 39.5 46.9 90.3 49.9 44.7 28.6 39.7 52.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 60.9 53.4 54.3 92.0 51.1 46.2 37.2 52.0 69.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 23.1 34.1 52.7 88.6 48.6 43.9 24.2 35.1 48.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 29.9 47.4 53.3 92.6 52.0 45.6 29.7 45.2 63.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 23.8 34.2 48.3 86.9 47.5 42.9 23.4 36.3 52.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 30.2 55.0 56.4 101.1 58.4 48.8 31.7 46.3 64.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 85.0 74.1 60.3 90.6 49.5 46.1 54.9 75.0 97.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 24.5 35.4 44.1 89.5 49.8 44.4 24.2 35.6 49.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------