***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.11.2017.-26.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 -0.5 1.3 2.8 -0.2 47.4 48.7 -0.1 1.5 3.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 -1.0 0.5 2.3 -0.5 43.6 46.2 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 0.7 2.1 2.4 -0.6 42.4 45.2 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 -4.9 -3.4 -0.4 -0.8 40.7 44.8 -4.4 -2.3 -0.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 -1.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.8 41.0 44.8 -0.9 0.7 2.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 0.6 -0.7 -1.8 -0.6 43.0 47.0 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -1.0 0.7 2.4 -0.4 45.0 47.3 -0.6 1.1 2.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -6.4 -5.3 -1.7 -0.9 40.3 44.3 -6.1 -4.2 -2.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 -0.7 0.4 0.4 -0.9 39.8 44.0 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -1.5 -0.7 -1.2 -1.1 38.3 43.0 -1.2 0.4 1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 -1.6 -0.7 -0.3 -0.9 39.7 44.2 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -2.3 -1.3 -0.9 -0.8 41.4 45.4 -2.0 -0.6 0.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 0.8 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 40.5 44.4 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 -0.6 -0.5 -0.5 -1.7 30.5 36.6 -0.2 1.3 2.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 -0.8 0.3 1.2 -0.5 42.9 46.2 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 -0.7 0.3 -0.7 -0.8 40.7 44.8 -0.4 1.1 2.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -0.9 0.3 2.1 -0.6 42.9 45.9 -0.7 0.9 2.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 -3.0 -2.5 -2.0 -1.3 36.1 41.3 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 -0.9 0.3 2.1 -0.6 42.0 44.9 -0.6 1.1 2.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 -3.4 -5.2 -2.7 -0.9 40.9 44.9 -6.2 -4.2 -2.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 -1.1 0.3 1.8 -0.6 42.1 45.1 -0.7 1.0 2.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 1.2 -0.4 2.0 -0.7 40.3 44.1 -1.1 0.5 2.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -1.2 -0.2 1.7 -0.9 39.1 42.7 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 -1.7 -1.2 -0.4 -1.4 34.1 39.7 -1.3 0.2 1.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 -0.6 0.8 1.8 -0.4 45.1 47.4 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 1.1 0.0 -1.0 -0.6 43.6 47.2 -1.0 0.5 1.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 -0.9 1.2 2.5 -0.2 47.1 48.8 -0.5 1.5 3.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 -2.3 -1.3 -0.2 -0.8 40.1 44.3 -2.0 -0.4 1.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -3.7 -3.0 -2.6 -1.3 36.5 41.5 -3.4 -1.5 0.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 -0.7 1.0 2.5 -0.4 44.9 47.0 -0.3 1.5 3.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------