***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 58.6 57.8 -1.7 -0.3 1.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.8 59.2 57.9 -2.2 -0.8 0.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 1.5 1.7 0.7 1.0 60.0 58.9 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 -3.4 -2.8 -1.8 1.3 63.0 60.9 -5.8 -4.1 -2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.3 1.3 62.4 60.6 -2.7 -1.3 0.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -1.6 -1.1 -3.1 1.3 61.9 60.2 -3.5 -2.1 -0.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.9 59.7 58.0 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -4.8 -4.5 -3.0 1.1 60.1 58.7 -6.8 -5.4 -4.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.4 -0.9 1.3 62.1 60.4 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 0.3 -0.2 -2.3 1.2 61.3 59.6 -2.3 -1.1 0.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 0.3 -0.2 -1.9 1.3 62.1 60.3 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 -1.2 -0.9 -2.5 1.2 60.8 59.3 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 -0.8 -0.5 -2.7 1.1 60.0 58.6 -3.0 -1.4 0.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 0.5 0.6 -1.4 1.0 59.5 58.4 -1.1 0.0 1.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.6 1.2 63.5 61.1 -2.4 -1.2 0.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 -0.1 0.3 -2.4 1.3 61.6 59.9 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -0.4 0.7 0.8 59.2 57.7 -2.4 -1.1 0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 -1.0 -1.7 -3.1 1.1 60.4 58.9 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.8 58.9 57.9 -1.9 -0.6 0.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 -4.9 -4.8 -4.5 0.8 57.0 56.4 -7.4 -5.6 -3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 -0.2 0.1 0.1 1.1 60.9 59.4 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 -0.4 -0.4 0.4 0.7 58.0 57.0 -2.2 -1.0 0.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 -2.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 58.6 58.1 -1.8 -0.6 0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 0.5 -0.1 -1.6 1.1 60.8 59.4 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 0.9 58.8 57.7 -1.9 -0.7 0.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 -0.9 -0.7 -2.8 1.1 59.6 58.6 -2.5 -1.3 -0.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.8 57.9 57.2 -2.4 -0.8 0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 -1.7 -1.1 -1.6 1.3 63.4 61.2 -3.5 -2.2 -0.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 -2.7 -2.5 -3.5 1.1 59.4 58.3 -4.8 -3.3 -1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 59.5 58.3 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------