***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 7.3 6.7 7.8 -2.8 21.2 25.7 8.6 10.9 13.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 5.9 5.2 7.4 -3.4 18.0 21.5 7.7 9.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 81 19 0 100 6.6 5.2 7.0 -4.1 14.5 18.7 8.6 10.9 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 1.6 1.3 5.0 -2.4 23.8 27.7 2.8 5.1 7.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 77 23 0 100 6.9 5.9 5.7 -3.6 16.8 21.8 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 7.5 7.4 5.7 -2.4 26.5 30.8 8.3 10.4 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 6.2 5.7 7.6 -2.9 21.0 24.5 7.5 9.8 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 0.2 -0.7 4.2 -4.1 16.1 20.4 1.5 3.3 4.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 81 19 0 100 7.1 5.7 6.2 -4.0 14.1 19.2 9.0 11.4 13.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 6.7 5.3 4.6 -4.6 13.6 17.9 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 7.1 5.9 6.0 -3.9 15.8 20.5 8.8 11.0 13.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 74 26 0 100 7.2 6.2 5.3 -3.5 17.7 22.4 8.7 10.9 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 70 30 0 100 7.7 6.8 6.3 -3.5 19.0 24.7 8.9 11.0 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 5.9 3.4 4.7 -6.1 8.7 11.7 8.9 11.5 13.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 6.7 7.4 8.0 -1.1 34.6 37.3 7.3 8.9 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 8.0 7.2 6.0 -3.3 19.5 24.6 9.3 11.5 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 5.6 5.0 7.0 -3.3 18.1 21.3 7.3 9.4 11.4 30 Palic 37000G16 85 15 0 100 5.8 4.2 3.5 -5.3 11.9 15.4 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 83 17 0 100 5.9 4.9 7.1 -3.8 15.6 19.3 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 3.7 2.3 2.7 -4.6 14.8 18.9 5.4 7.7 9.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 6.9 5.5 6.9 -3.9 14.6 19.4 8.7 11.0 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 89 11 0 100 5.4 4.5 6.7 -3.9 14.7 17.7 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 87 13 0 100 5.9 4.5 6.6 -4.4 12.5 16.5 8.1 10.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 89 11 0 100 6.7 4.6 5.0 -5.5 10.2 13.7 9.2 11.6 13.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 7.0 6.5 7.0 -2.7 22.9 27.4 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 7.7 7.7 5.9 -2.3 26.2 31.7 8.4 10.2 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 7.5 7.3 7.7 -2.5 24.5 28.7 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 6.6 6.7 6.2 -2.1 26.4 30.0 7.5 9.3 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 2.9 1.1 3.0 -5.3 12.0 15.5 4.9 7.3 9.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 76 24 0 100 6.2 5.6 7.5 -3.3 18.7 22.5 7.8 10.0 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------