***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.5 6.8 6.0 0.8 58.7 57.2 4.0 5.8 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.6 5.8 6.0 0.7 57.7 56.2 3.2 5.0 6.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.1 7.5 6.5 1.0 59.7 57.8 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 2.5 3.0 3.6 1.0 60.2 58.1 -0.3 1.8 3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.5 4.6 1.0 60.4 58.3 4.5 6.4 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.6 6.9 4.1 1.0 59.6 57.1 4.2 6.0 7.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.6 5.9 0.7 58.0 56.3 3.1 4.8 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 1.7 2.2 4.2 1.0 60.6 58.4 -0.8 1.0 2.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.2 5.3 1.0 60.3 58.1 5.1 7.1 8.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.2 4.7 1.0 60.3 57.8 4.4 6.2 7.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 7.1 7.6 4.7 1.1 61.1 59.0 4.5 6.4 8.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 7.3 7.8 4.5 1.1 61.2 59.3 4.7 6.6 8.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.3 4.1 0.9 59.2 57.4 4.5 6.3 8.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.9 5.7 0.9 58.2 55.8 4.8 6.9 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.1 4.5 1.0 61.0 58.9 3.8 5.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.9 4.4 1.0 60.5 58.4 4.9 6.8 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 5.1 5.2 5.9 0.6 56.9 55.2 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.5 4.7 0.9 58.9 56.4 3.0 4.6 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 6.1 6.4 6.2 0.8 58.1 56.5 3.5 5.5 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 4.5 4.7 2.9 0.7 57.5 55.5 2.0 3.9 5.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.0 7.4 5.9 1.0 59.9 57.9 4.5 6.4 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 5.8 5.9 5.9 0.6 56.7 55.0 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 6.3 6.5 6.5 0.9 58.8 56.8 3.9 5.6 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.2 5.6 0.9 59.0 56.6 5.1 7.2 9.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.0 6.2 4.5 0.8 58.2 56.4 3.7 5.4 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 4.0 0.9 59.7 58.2 4.5 5.9 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.0 5.5 0.7 57.8 56.2 4.3 6.1 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.5 7.0 4.1 1.1 61.0 58.8 4.2 5.9 7.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 4.4 4.6 4.1 0.8 58.1 55.8 1.8 3.7 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.9 6.0 0.8 58.4 56.9 3.3 5.1 6.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------