***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.5 7.7 7.4 -0.4 43.3 45.6 6.8 8.3 9.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.0 6.8 7.3 -0.5 40.7 43.4 6.2 7.6 8.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 7.1 7.9 7.5 -0.7 38.9 42.3 7.3 8.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 1.3 2.7 4.8 -0.3 44.7 46.5 1.7 3.1 4.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.8 7.9 5.8 -0.6 40.9 43.7 7.2 8.7 10.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.7 7.9 5.5 -0.2 47.2 48.6 6.7 8.2 9.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.8 6.8 7.4 -0.4 42.6 44.8 6.1 7.4 8.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 0.6 1.4 5.0 -0.7 39.2 42.6 0.9 2.2 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.4 8.5 6.5 -0.7 39.6 42.9 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.7 7.4 5.6 -0.8 37.2 41.1 7.1 8.5 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.8 8.0 6.0 -0.6 40.6 43.5 7.3 8.8 10.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.1 8.2 5.6 -0.5 42.3 45.0 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 7.1 8.1 5.8 -0.5 41.7 44.7 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 7.1 7.4 6.3 -1.4 30.2 35.7 7.7 9.2 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 5.6 7.0 6.2 0.0 49.7 50.2 5.8 7.0 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 7.5 8.8 5.8 -0.4 43.5 45.7 7.9 9.4 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.4 6.2 7.1 -0.6 40.0 42.7 5.7 7.0 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.4 5.8 5.2 -1.1 33.8 38.6 5.7 7.0 8.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 6.2 7.1 7.4 -0.6 39.4 42.4 6.5 7.9 9.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 4.4 3.7 -1.0 34.6 39.1 4.3 5.8 7.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 7.0 7.9 7.1 -0.6 39.5 42.9 7.4 8.8 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 5.9 6.5 7.0 -0.8 36.8 40.2 6.2 7.6 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.4 7.0 7.5 -0.8 37.5 41.2 6.6 8.0 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 7.7 8.2 6.4 -1.1 33.0 37.9 8.2 9.6 11.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.3 6.2 -0.4 43.1 45.6 6.5 7.8 9.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.0 5.4 -0.2 46.2 48.5 7.1 8.3 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.0 8.2 7.1 -0.3 44.3 46.4 7.3 8.7 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 6.1 7.4 5.5 -0.2 47.1 48.2 6.3 7.6 8.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.0 4.6 -1.2 32.6 37.5 4.1 5.6 6.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.0 7.0 7.4 -0.5 41.5 44.0 6.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------