***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-19.11.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 18.4 42.3 34.8 313.4 94.8 87.8 3.8 7.5 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 19.1 52.4 35.5 364.8 96.8 89.1 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 25.0 67.8 38.6 349.6 96.4 89.7 4.6 9.5 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 26.8 48.9 36.4 265.8 91.5 85.1 5.7 11.0 18.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 25.4 45.2 32.9 247.2 90.2 85.2 4.9 10.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 26.2 34.0 22.7 180.1 82.6 76.7 6.1 11.6 19.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 17.0 42.8 34.2 354.6 96.6 89.0 3.7 7.1 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 9 91 100 35.8 60.3 35.3 240.7 89.8 85.6 7.7 15.1 25.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 23.8 44.8 34.0 262.3 91.7 86.3 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 28.1 50.4 35.8 248.4 90.4 85.5 5.7 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 12 88 100 27.0 44.9 31.6 233.9 89.1 84.1 6.0 11.6 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 31.2 53.3 31.0 235.4 89.2 84.9 5.8 12.2 21.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 29.6 41.8 29.2 195.5 84.9 79.7 6.5 12.8 21.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 30.2 76.9 47.9 344.6 96.3 90.0 5.9 12.0 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 8 92 100 27.2 62.8 42.2 314.7 93.6 86.5 4.1 9.4 17.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 26.5 38.6 28.5 207.4 86.3 80.8 6.3 12.0 19.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 17.6 41.4 31.5 327.3 95.6 85.8 4.2 7.8 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 29.9 59.8 39.2 266.4 91.8 86.3 5.6 11.7 20.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 21.5 61.5 37.3 368.5 97.1 89.8 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 35.0 60.7 39.7 229.3 89.0 84.4 6.4 13.6 24.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 24.4 50.4 34.3 278.8 93.0 87.1 4.9 9.8 17.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 10 90 100 20.0 50.7 34.6 341.8 96.2 86.5 4.4 8.5 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 19.9 52.5 39.9 363.4 97.0 90.4 4.4 8.5 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 25.6 60.9 41.2 314.3 94.6 88.2 4.5 9.8 17.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 18.5 35.8 33.4 262.0 91.6 85.2 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 10 90 100 27.9 44.1 29.8 223.6 88.1 83.3 5.9 11.5 19.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 11 89 100 19.9 41.0 33.2 289.9 93.5 86.2 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 26.0 46.4 33.7 253.0 90.2 83.6 4.8 10.1 17.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 38.2 71.0 41.1 265.9 91.8 86.6 9.0 17.0 28.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 18.9 55.1 36.8 373.6 97.3 89.9 3.6 7.5 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------