***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.11.2017.-03.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.2 15.5 106.8 65.2 53.8 3.6 6.9 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.2 13.1 106.4 65.1 52.9 2.9 5.6 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.2 12.8 15.3 107.9 65.4 53.6 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 12.6 14.2 16.7 98.6 62.3 51.3 5.9 10.2 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.1 10.9 16.2 97.3 61.0 50.5 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.7 14.6 90.1 58.3 47.0 3.4 6.0 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.8 9.8 12.9 108.1 65.9 53.3 3.4 6.1 9.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.7 16.7 95.4 59.6 49.6 6.8 11.4 17.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.5 10.1 16.7 97.5 60.8 50.6 3.4 6.9 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.2 17.0 95.8 59.6 49.9 4.8 9.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.3 11.4 15.2 93.1 59.0 48.6 4.0 8.2 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.8 14.8 91.2 58.3 48.0 4.5 9.5 16.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.5 11.0 14.9 88.9 57.4 47.0 5.0 8.9 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.8 13.5 17.8 103.8 63.5 52.7 4.8 8.9 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 14.7 16.5 15.4 91.7 61.0 47.7 5.0 10.7 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.0 14.7 91.6 58.8 48.0 3.6 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 8.2 10.5 13.0 110.4 66.8 53.8 3.3 6.1 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 12.1 12.2 17.6 95.6 59.3 49.5 5.1 9.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.5 13.6 106.7 65.2 53.3 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.2 15.3 22.6 105.0 63.5 53.7 4.6 9.5 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.2 12.0 16.6 104.1 63.7 52.9 3.7 7.5 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.0 9.9 13.2 105.6 65.3 52.6 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.6 10.0 14.9 109.3 66.0 54.6 2.6 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.5 16.7 100.2 61.7 50.8 5.0 8.9 14.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.1 17.9 106.7 64.8 54.4 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 15.2 88.4 58.4 48.5 3.9 7.2 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 9.8 11.9 16.5 106.9 65.1 54.5 4.1 7.6 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 12.3 13.7 15.5 95.3 61.4 49.1 5.2 9.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 15.9 16.4 19.1 98.0 60.2 50.6 6.5 11.9 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.0 10.1 13.7 107.4 65.6 53.8 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------