***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.12.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.4 9.1 15.2 106.5 64.8 51.9 3.1 5.7 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.1 13.1 108.2 65.9 52.6 3.0 5.5 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.1 13.9 100.7 62.7 50.6 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.7 16.2 99.4 62.2 50.9 4.0 7.4 12.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.4 16.3 100.0 62.0 51.3 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.4 7.5 15.4 95.6 60.3 49.4 2.6 5.3 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.0 12.8 105.2 64.8 51.4 3.2 5.9 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.2 10.4 15.9 90.8 57.4 48.1 4.9 8.5 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.8 16.6 98.7 61.2 51.3 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.4 16.3 93.4 58.5 49.5 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.8 7.8 15.0 94.1 59.3 49.7 3.1 5.8 9.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.1 14.6 91.9 58.1 48.0 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.5 9.4 16.4 97.6 60.7 50.0 4.3 7.1 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 5.2 12.9 16.6 100.2 61.5 50.2 4.6 8.9 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.2 9.7 14.8 91.2 60.5 48.3 2.5 6.1 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 7.9 8.1 15.4 96.3 60.4 49.9 3.3 6.0 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.4 12.9 104.5 64.9 52.5 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 8.1 16.6 93.0 58.0 48.7 3.3 6.2 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 9.5 13.1 106.3 65.0 51.9 3.7 6.3 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 9.1 20.9 94.9 59.3 49.3 4.0 7.0 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.4 16.1 102.7 62.9 51.8 4.0 6.7 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.8 13.2 105.1 65.0 52.7 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.4 9.4 13.3 100.9 62.6 50.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.8 15.1 94.8 59.3 49.3 4.6 8.2 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.4 8.0 18.1 109.6 65.8 53.9 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.5 15.9 98.3 61.1 50.2 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.8 16.5 109.6 65.9 53.4 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.7 14.9 94.7 61.0 49.9 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 17.8 94.6 58.5 48.9 5.4 9.9 15.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.3 13.1 106.2 65.0 51.2 2.8 5.2 8.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------