***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 09.11.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.11.2017.-10.12.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 19 81 100 58.1 71.0 80.4 150.2 83.3 76.5 26.1 37.1 49.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 19 81 100 55.3 72.9 74.9 162.1 86.5 79.1 25.4 35.7 47.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 19 81 100 69.5 89.8 81.9 155.3 85.1 78.0 30.0 43.5 59.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 73.1 86.7 87.1 140.2 79.5 72.4 37.2 51.4 67.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 63.2 73.5 81.0 132.1 76.4 69.5 31.8 44.8 60.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 49.5 60.5 67.5 115.1 67.3 61.2 30.0 43.4 59.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 51.8 67.7 73.0 160.7 86.0 78.7 25.7 35.1 46.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 89.3 101.5 83.8 128.5 75.6 68.7 43.4 61.9 84.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 59.4 69.2 82.5 133.6 77.5 70.3 28.9 40.8 55.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 68.3 78.2 84.4 129.3 76.1 69.0 34.4 48.4 64.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 69.5 77.1 76.9 126.5 74.0 67.5 29.8 45.5 64.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 80.1 88.1 75.7 126.4 74.1 67.5 35.4 52.9 73.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 72.0 75.1 76.5 120.6 70.8 64.7 30.2 46.7 67.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 24 76 100 86.4 113.3 97.6 152.4 86.1 76.7 42.4 58.3 76.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 87.1 105.3 87.7 144.4 79.7 72.7 37.3 55.6 77.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 65.0 68.3 73.3 121.5 71.2 65.1 30.6 44.7 61.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 55.0 71.4 71.0 157.1 85.2 76.4 27.8 38.0 49.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 74.3 85.9 89.3 132.6 78.6 70.6 37.4 51.6 68.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 19 81 100 62.7 82.4 77.3 161.7 86.7 79.2 29.7 41.1 54.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 81.1 95.3 104.5 129.7 76.8 69.2 37.9 55.5 76.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 62.4 73.8 82.3 140.9 80.2 73.2 30.6 42.5 56.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 64.5 81.5 74.5 156.9 85.4 76.6 32.4 44.0 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 60.0 79.1 81.9 159.4 86.7 78.6 28.6 39.5 52.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 78.6 97.9 88.4 144.5 82.7 74.2 36.6 51.9 69.6 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 54.9 63.9 87.0 141.4 80.3 73.5 25.3 35.9 48.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 70.2 75.8 78.3 127.0 74.1 68.1 30.1 45.2 63.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 60.3 72.8 81.9 145.8 81.9 75.1 27.5 39.0 52.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 69.1 78.9 79.3 133.3 76.1 69.2 31.7 46.3 64.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 107.3 126.0 95.6 133.6 79.4 71.4 52.7 73.4 97.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 56.9 74.5 76.9 162.2 86.6 79.5 25.8 36.3 48.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------