***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 -0.4 -1.1 0.8 -3.4 15.4 18.4 1.1 2.8 4.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 81 19 0 100 -1.5 -1.9 0.7 -2.9 18.2 21.8 0.0 1.9 3.6 30 Becej 27400G00 82 18 0 100 0.4 -0.1 1.2 -3.0 17.5 20.6 1.9 3.8 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 85 15 0 100 -5.2 -6.8 -1.6 -3.2 11.6 16.3 -3.3 -1.3 0.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 85 15 0 100 -1.6 -2.0 -0.2 -3.0 16.6 19.7 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 87 13 0 100 -1.9 -2.5 -2.4 -2.7 14.1 17.7 -0.5 0.8 2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 -1.1 -1.7 0.6 -3.0 17.9 21.6 0.2 1.9 3.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 -6.5 -6.7 -1.5 -2.2 22.6 26.0 -5.4 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 -0.8 -1.2 0.1 -2.6 17.4 20.8 0.6 2.2 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 -1.0 -2.3 20.9 24.4 0.2 1.7 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 -1.5 -2.0 -0.3 -2.6 16.7 20.1 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 -2.0 -2.5 -1.1 -2.6 17.4 20.8 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 -1.7 -2.5 -1.2 -2.8 14.2 17.8 -0.5 1.0 2.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 -0.2 -0.6 0.0 -2.6 20.0 24.2 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 -0.8 -2.1 -0.1 -2.9 9.5 14.5 0.4 1.7 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 -0.7 -1.2 -1.0 -2.7 15.4 18.6 0.6 2.0 3.3 30 Nis 06700G01 76 24 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 0.5 -2.8 19.4 23.2 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 -1.9 -2.0 -1.2 -2.3 24.1 27.2 -1.2 0.0 1.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 -1.2 -1.6 0.8 -2.9 17.8 21.4 0.2 1.9 3.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -4.7 -4.6 -2.2 -1.9 30.7 33.1 -4.3 -2.6 -0.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 -1.2 -1.8 0.9 -2.9 16.9 19.9 0.3 2.1 3.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 -1.4 -1.7 0.8 -2.8 19.2 22.8 -0.2 1.4 2.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 80 20 0 100 -0.9 -1.3 0.8 -2.7 17.8 21.5 0.3 1.8 3.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 73 27 0 100 -0.8 -1.1 0.1 -2.5 20.4 24.1 0.1 1.5 2.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 -0.7 -1.5 0.0 -3.6 12.6 15.8 0.8 2.2 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 -1.3 -1.8 -1.7 -2.9 14.5 17.8 -0.1 1.2 2.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 -1.7 -2.8 0.3 -3.6 13.8 17.1 0.4 2.5 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 -2.1 -3.2 -1.2 -3.0 11.2 16.1 -0.9 0.5 1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 -2.9 -2.9 -1.7 -1.9 29.0 31.7 -2.4 -0.4 1.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 -1.1 -1.7 0.9 -3.0 17.9 21.1 0.4 2.3 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------