***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 82 18 0 100 6.0 5.3 7.0 -3.6 17.2 20.1 8.1 10.6 12.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 83 17 0 100 5.4 5.1 7.3 -3.5 18.9 21.4 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 6.1 5.8 7.7 -3.4 20.4 23.1 8.0 10.5 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 0.2 -1.1 3.7 -3.9 15.0 19.5 2.3 4.7 7.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 79 21 0 100 6.2 5.8 5.9 -3.4 19.6 22.7 8.0 10.4 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 5.9 5.4 4.3 -3.7 18.5 21.6 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 82 18 0 100 5.4 4.8 7.0 -3.5 18.0 20.6 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 0.1 0.0 5.3 -2.8 24.8 28.0 1.0 2.8 4.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 6.5 6.2 6.9 -3.2 20.1 23.3 8.5 11.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 6.6 6.5 6.1 -3.0 24.2 27.2 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 6.5 6.1 6.6 -3.2 21.1 24.3 8.1 10.5 12.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 73 27 0 100 6.6 6.3 5.6 -3.1 21.4 24.9 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 75 25 0 100 6.7 6.3 6.4 -3.4 20.5 23.5 8.3 10.5 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.2 7.4 7.8 -2.7 27.2 29.9 8.4 11.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 83 17 0 100 5.6 4.1 5.8 -3.4 11.5 17.5 7.1 8.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 7.2 6.7 5.8 -3.4 20.0 23.1 8.8 11.1 13.3 30 Nis 06700G01 82 18 0 100 5.2 4.8 6.8 -3.5 18.8 21.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 5.9 6.2 5.8 -2.8 27.1 29.8 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 82 18 0 100 5.6 5.4 7.5 -3.4 20.0 22.5 7.6 10.0 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 3.8 4.3 4.7 -2.3 30.1 32.4 4.8 7.1 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 6.0 5.8 7.5 -3.4 19.7 22.6 8.1 10.6 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 5.5 5.4 7.3 -3.2 20.7 23.1 7.4 9.7 11.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 5.9 5.9 7.8 -3.2 21.7 24.2 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 7.1 7.2 7.4 -3.0 25.1 27.8 8.5 11.1 13.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 84 16 0 100 5.6 4.9 6.0 -3.8 16.8 20.0 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 6.5 5.8 4.7 -3.5 17.3 20.7 8.0 9.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 83 17 0 100 6.1 5.5 6.6 -3.6 17.4 20.2 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 5.6 4.3 4.7 -3.7 14.3 19.5 7.2 9.2 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.7 5.5 -2.5 29.1 31.6 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 82 18 0 100 5.5 5.1 7.3 -3.5 18.7 21.3 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------