***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9.2 9.2 8.4 0.4 54.6 53.7 6.6 8.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 8.9 9.2 8.7 0.7 57.7 56.5 6.4 8.4 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 10.2 10.2 8.9 0.5 55.4 54.6 7.5 9.6 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.7 4.8 -0.7 42.6 43.5 1.4 3.7 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 10.1 9.7 6.9 0.1 51.1 50.6 7.5 9.5 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 84 16 100 9.2 9.0 6.2 0.3 53.5 52.9 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.8 9.1 8.6 0.8 58.7 57.2 6.3 8.2 9.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 3.2 3.5 6.6 0.8 58.4 57.7 0.9 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 10.9 10.7 7.8 0.3 53.0 52.4 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 9.8 10.1 7.3 0.7 57.2 56.4 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 10.5 10.3 7.4 0.4 54.3 53.7 7.6 9.8 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.3 10.4 6.9 0.6 56.1 55.5 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 10.6 10.7 7.5 0.7 57.0 56.1 7.7 9.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.7 8.9 1.2 61.8 59.9 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 4.8 6.2 6.1 -0.8 40.5 42.0 5.3 7.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 10.9 10.8 7.0 0.4 54.3 53.6 8.2 10.3 12.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 8.3 8.8 8.5 0.9 59.3 57.8 5.9 7.8 9.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.6 7.3 1.2 61.0 59.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 9.2 9.5 8.9 0.7 57.4 56.3 6.5 8.6 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 8.6 8.1 6.2 1.6 66.0 64.0 4.4 6.3 8.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 10.3 10.1 8.4 0.3 52.9 52.4 7.7 9.8 11.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 9.0 9.4 8.6 0.8 59.0 57.6 6.2 8.3 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.1 9.5 9.1 0.8 58.2 56.9 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.0 11.4 8.5 0.9 59.0 57.8 8.1 10.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 9.3 8.9 7.1 0.1 51.3 50.8 6.9 8.7 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 9.5 9.6 6.5 0.6 56.6 55.8 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.3 10.3 8.1 0.5 55.6 54.5 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.6 7.1 5.6 -0.7 41.9 43.1 5.9 8.1 10.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 8.5 7.9 7.1 1.4 63.8 62.0 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 8.9 9.1 8.7 0.7 57.0 56.0 6.5 8.4 10.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------