***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 8.5 7.1 7.0 -0.7 39.2 41.0 6.6 8.0 9.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 7.7 6.7 7.0 -0.6 41.5 43.2 6.0 7.4 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.0 7.8 7.4 -0.7 40.7 42.4 7.1 8.6 9.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 1.3 1.6 3.9 -1.1 33.9 36.2 1.5 2.9 4.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.0 7.6 5.5 -0.7 39.3 40.8 7.0 8.4 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.4 7.1 4.9 -0.6 39.8 41.2 6.5 7.9 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 7.6 6.6 7.0 -0.6 41.8 43.4 5.9 7.2 8.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 2.5 1.7 5.2 -0.3 45.3 46.0 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.6 8.3 6.4 -0.6 40.9 42.2 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.8 7.8 5.8 -0.4 44.0 45.0 6.9 8.3 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.1 7.9 5.9 -0.5 41.9 43.1 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.2 8.0 5.5 -0.4 43.3 44.2 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.0 5.8 -0.5 42.7 43.8 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 9.5 8.7 7.1 -0.3 46.6 47.5 7.5 9.0 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 5.4 5.7 5.2 -1.0 33.8 36.7 5.7 6.8 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.7 8.4 5.5 -0.6 41.5 42.6 7.6 9.1 10.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 7.2 6.2 6.8 -0.6 41.9 43.3 5.5 6.8 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 7.2 6.5 5.8 -0.2 47.0 47.7 5.5 6.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 8.1 7.1 7.2 -0.6 41.8 43.5 6.3 7.7 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.7 4.6 0.1 51.7 51.9 4.0 5.5 7.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 9.1 7.7 6.9 -0.7 39.7 41.3 7.1 8.6 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 7.8 6.8 6.9 -0.6 42.1 43.6 6.0 7.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 8.2 7.2 7.5 -0.5 42.8 44.4 6.4 7.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.8 8.9 6.9 -0.4 44.8 45.9 7.9 9.4 10.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.1 6.6 5.7 -0.9 37.4 39.3 6.2 7.6 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.5 5.0 -0.5 41.6 43.0 6.9 8.1 9.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.0 7.6 6.6 -0.7 39.7 41.4 7.1 8.5 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 6.0 6.3 4.6 -1.0 34.3 36.8 6.2 7.4 8.5 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.9 5.3 5.5 0.0 49.7 50.2 3.9 5.3 6.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 7.8 6.8 7.1 -0.6 41.2 42.9 6.1 7.4 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------