***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-20.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 3.4 5.6 5.9 51.3 44.1 33.9 3.5 7.0 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 3.7 6.8 6.3 59.2 47.9 36.9 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 4.9 8.8 6.6 57.4 46.7 37.4 5.0 10.0 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 5.9 8.8 5.8 46.3 42.0 34.2 6.1 11.9 20.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 4.6 7.6 6.1 48.3 42.8 34.6 4.9 10.0 17.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.9 9.4 5.5 46.2 41.9 33.3 6.5 12.5 20.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 3.3 6.9 6.5 64.5 50.2 36.9 3.6 6.8 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.6 14.1 8.1 61.1 49.2 40.4 7.1 14.4 25.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 5.2 8.9 6.5 53.2 44.7 36.5 5.5 10.6 17.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 10.3 7.9 59.2 47.2 39.2 5.5 11.4 19.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 5.5 9.0 6.5 50.6 43.7 34.9 5.8 11.4 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.1 11.4 7.1 57.6 47.7 38.2 5.8 12.3 22.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.7 10.4 7.2 51.4 45.3 36.1 6.0 12.4 21.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 6.7 12.6 8.8 65.7 50.0 41.4 6.4 12.6 21.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 4.6 5.9 4.9 39.7 38.9 30.3 4.2 10.2 19.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 5.0 8.0 6.2 46.4 41.9 33.3 5.4 10.8 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.4 7.3 71.9 53.5 40.7 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 6.9 12.3 8.8 63.0 49.8 41.7 6.1 12.3 21.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 7.9 6.2 58.4 48.0 38.2 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 18.9 13.2 9.9 62.0 49.9 41.3 6.4 13.2 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 4.9 8.2 6.4 52.3 43.9 35.4 5.2 10.2 17.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.4 7.1 65.7 51.3 40.9 3.4 7.0 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.3 7.7 6.6 60.2 47.8 39.2 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 5.6 10.4 8.4 64.0 49.4 40.9 5.5 10.7 18.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 4.1 6.5 6.1 47.1 41.6 32.0 4.7 8.8 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.3 10.5 6.4 50.4 45.8 35.8 6.1 12.3 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 4.2 7.1 6.0 50.3 43.7 33.0 4.7 8.7 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 4.6 6.9 5.5 44.1 40.8 32.5 4.6 10.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.0 17.9 9.5 64.8 50.8 42.3 9.0 17.3 28.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.6 6.8 6.2 57.4 47.7 36.8 3.7 7.4 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------