***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.11.2016.-27.11.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.7 12.6 96.6 61.9 48.0 3.2 6.5 11.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 7.9 9.5 83.2 55.9 44.9 3.4 6.6 10.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.2 12.2 94.8 60.8 46.9 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.5 12.3 14.8 98.2 61.8 48.5 4.1 8.3 14.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.1 13.4 90.4 58.6 46.0 3.1 6.6 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.9 8.4 11.7 80.0 53.0 42.4 3.4 7.5 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.4 7.5 9.1 80.5 54.8 43.7 3.0 6.2 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 6.7 14.4 14.1 85.7 55.5 45.3 6.1 11.8 20.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.4 9.0 14.1 95.7 60.9 48.7 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.7 14.7 92.0 58.5 47.6 3.5 7.2 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.4 14.5 91.8 58.5 48.1 3.5 7.5 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.3 13.2 85.2 55.7 45.6 3.9 8.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.1 14.0 87.9 58.2 48.2 3.7 8.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.5 14.8 13.8 90.4 57.9 46.5 5.8 11.2 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.9 14.4 14.8 109.4 66.7 49.7 3.4 7.6 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.7 12.4 81.4 54.4 43.5 2.6 6.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 3.5 7.7 8.8 79.7 53.6 41.7 3.4 6.8 11.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.8 14.9 91.3 57.9 46.9 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 9.5 10.2 85.2 56.2 45.0 3.7 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.6 12.7 16.7 83.4 54.1 44.4 5.8 11.1 18.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.9 13.3 93.6 60.4 46.7 3.3 6.3 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 5.6 10.9 9.3 78.4 53.1 42.3 5.8 9.9 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.7 11.1 86.4 54.9 43.3 3.8 7.3 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.5 14.1 93.9 59.4 47.3 5.1 9.9 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.4 13.5 91.9 59.4 44.9 3.5 6.4 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.0 9.4 13.5 85.0 55.6 45.3 3.4 7.5 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 3.5 9.4 12.4 90.3 59.1 45.1 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.1 13.7 97.1 61.6 47.7 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 18.3 15.5 87.4 55.6 45.7 7.8 15.1 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.9 9.3 10.2 87.0 57.9 45.7 3.8 7.3 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------