***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.11.2016.-04.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 4.3 12.3 12.4 105.2 65.4 52.9 4.1 7.6 12.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 9.3 9.9 102.3 65.1 53.5 2.9 5.6 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.4 14.0 12.8 115.2 68.5 55.4 3.6 7.3 12.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 6.4 19.9 15.4 124.8 71.5 56.4 6.0 10.7 17.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.8 15.9 14.8 119.0 70.1 55.8 4.0 8.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 13.4 14.4 125.5 71.7 56.2 3.5 6.7 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 9.5 9.9 99.5 64.0 52.0 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 14.0 21.6 16.5 128.7 72.4 57.5 6.2 11.1 17.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.3 14.3 15.6 120.4 70.3 56.7 3.2 6.9 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 10.7 16.8 16.3 123.9 71.2 57.6 4.1 8.2 14.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 11.2 17.9 14.9 123.7 71.2 56.3 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.6 23.0 15.2 130.0 72.9 57.2 4.3 9.5 17.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 11.8 18.0 15.5 124.4 71.5 57.2 4.8 9.1 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.8 14.7 15.1 116.1 68.7 56.1 4.3 8.1 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 6.1 30.0 16.6 140.4 75.5 56.9 5.1 11.5 21.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 10.7 17.0 14.7 124.6 71.5 56.1 3.8 7.8 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 3.6 10.3 9.8 100.6 64.4 52.1 3.3 6.5 10.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.3 15.9 16.6 121.3 70.3 57.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 10.6 10.4 106.2 66.1 54.5 3.0 6.1 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 11.6 17.5 19.9 119.0 69.7 57.1 3.8 8.3 15.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 11.0 15.1 14.3 117.2 69.3 55.4 4.5 8.5 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.4 10.2 100.8 64.7 53.1 2.7 6.0 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.1 10.9 11.7 113.1 67.9 55.6 2.6 5.7 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.6 15.6 15.2 123.6 71.0 57.5 4.6 8.3 13.5 28 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.7 11.5 14.3 110.0 66.9 53.5 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.4 16.3 15.5 128.9 72.8 57.3 3.7 7.5 13.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.8 12.8 104.0 65.1 52.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 5.3 21.7 15.3 135.1 74.1 57.0 4.7 9.4 16.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 19.5 17.4 119.0 69.6 57.7 4.6 9.6 17.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.1 10.6 104.1 65.4 53.6 3.3 6.2 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------