***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.12.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 6.7 8.4 11.3 104.5 64.9 54.2 2.8 5.3 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 7.1 9.3 10.1 108.7 67.0 56.7 2.7 5.3 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.5 10.0 11.4 106.5 65.7 55.0 2.5 5.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.6 11.3 12.5 102.7 64.7 52.2 4.5 7.7 11.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.6 10.2 12.6 100.9 63.6 51.4 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.6 8.7 13.2 111.4 68.0 53.1 2.3 4.8 8.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 7.0 9.3 9.7 106.5 66.5 56.4 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 11.8 14.4 13.7 107.6 66.4 54.5 6.3 9.8 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 7.3 9.0 13.3 105.3 65.1 52.9 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 8.6 11.3 13.9 108.4 66.2 53.9 3.4 6.6 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.8 12.8 104.9 65.5 52.8 3.2 6.0 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.5 12.6 106.5 66.5 54.3 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.2 13.0 103.6 65.4 52.9 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 12.0 15.2 13.5 107.5 65.9 53.9 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.5 12.7 14.0 118.9 70.3 55.2 2.3 5.5 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.9 9.5 12.7 104.3 65.6 52.2 3.5 6.1 9.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 7.8 10.5 9.7 108.8 67.4 57.9 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 11.1 14.2 110.7 66.8 54.0 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 8.1 10.3 10.6 108.8 66.8 56.2 3.4 6.2 10.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 9.1 11.1 17.3 107.5 66.0 54.5 4.7 7.5 11.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 8.2 9.9 12.2 104.0 64.8 53.2 3.8 6.6 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 9.4 12.8 10.8 114.2 68.7 58.4 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.9 11.5 107.1 65.9 55.0 2.9 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.1 12.8 12.8 106.2 65.5 53.6 4.3 7.9 13.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.7 8.2 12.5 102.9 64.4 53.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 8.6 10.6 12.8 105.9 66.6 53.9 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.3 11.6 103.3 64.4 53.4 3.4 6.2 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.9 8.9 12.5 110.4 67.4 52.5 2.5 4.9 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 13.6 17.4 14.9 110.2 66.5 53.9 6.2 10.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.7 8.7 10.4 107.4 66.4 55.8 2.8 5.2 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------