***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 10.11.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.11.2016.-11.12.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 42.1 35.9 42.2 89.5 49.3 45.0 25.8 36.4 48.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 41.0 34.3 35.8 87.3 48.5 45.8 25.3 35.4 46.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 50.4 45.6 42.9 93.1 52.2 47.5 30.6 43.8 59.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 59.6 54.3 48.5 93.0 52.4 46.9 39.0 52.3 67.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 32.6 45.0 46.9 89.6 49.0 44.7 33.1 45.7 60.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 51.5 43.4 44.8 89.8 49.1 45.1 30.7 44.1 59.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 40.0 34.0 35.3 87.0 48.7 45.4 25.5 34.8 45.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 72.0 66.5 52.4 94.9 53.1 49.0 44.4 62.9 84.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 29.4 43.2 49.5 94.2 52.3 47.5 29.5 41.5 55.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 56.8 51.9 52.9 95.6 53.2 48.7 35.6 49.3 64.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 54.7 47.4 48.6 92.2 50.9 46.8 31.2 46.3 64.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 62.3 56.9 48.1 93.8 52.5 48.6 37.3 54.2 74.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 56.6 47.4 49.7 90.5 49.5 45.7 31.6 47.9 67.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 66.3 60.4 51.2 94.4 51.9 48.2 42.7 58.3 76.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 66.9 67.6 50.3 101.4 59.4 50.7 36.9 55.5 77.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 53.0 43.2 45.9 87.6 47.5 43.8 31.5 45.6 62.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 42.7 37.0 35.6 89.4 50.1 46.8 27.0 37.0 48.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 59.7 55.2 54.5 96.0 52.9 48.7 38.8 52.6 68.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 46.5 40.2 37.4 88.7 49.0 46.3 29.8 40.9 53.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 64.0 55.6 63.7 92.5 50.5 47.0 38.6 55.2 74.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 49.5 43.6 46.2 91.7 50.7 46.1 31.2 42.9 56.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 48.8 42.5 37.4 88.5 48.9 46.3 32.1 43.2 55.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 44.9 39.9 40.9 91.2 50.1 47.2 29.1 39.9 52.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 59.5 55.0 50.4 96.2 53.5 49.1 36.3 51.6 69.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 42.0 34.7 46.4 87.9 48.0 43.9 25.8 35.9 47.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 53.4 48.0 48.2 91.5 51.7 48.4 31.0 46.2 64.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 45.6 37.4 42.9 86.9 47.4 43.7 27.8 39.2 52.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 55.4 51.4 47.0 95.7 54.7 48.4 31.9 46.8 64.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 85.2 76.9 57.4 94.6 51.7 48.1 54.9 74.7 97.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 41.3 35.6 37.4 88.3 49.3 45.9 25.8 36.1 47.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------