***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 13.5 13.8 13.2 2.9 76.9 76.0 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 5 95 100 12.7 13.2 13.6 3.3 80.2 79.2 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 14.1 14.5 13.9 3.4 79.7 78.8 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 8.6 10.3 11.7 4.1 85.6 84.4 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 4 96 100 13.8 14.5 12.5 3.7 80.9 79.9 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 12.5 13.0 10.9 3.0 76.2 75.0 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 9 91 100 12.4 12.8 13.1 3.0 78.3 77.3 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 5.7 6.6 12.1 4.1 82.8 81.7 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 14.9 16.0 13.6 4.0 83.2 82.2 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 13.9 14.9 13.0 4.1 82.7 81.6 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 14.4 15.1 12.6 3.7 80.7 79.7 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 14.0 14.9 12.2 3.7 81.3 80.2 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 13.5 14.1 12.1 3.1 76.6 75.6 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 15.1 16.0 14.1 4.1 82.2 81.2 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.8 14.3 13.4 4.4 91.7 90.2 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 13 87 100 14.3 14.8 12.0 3.2 78.1 77.1 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 12.0 12.5 13.1 3.3 80.6 79.6 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 12.3 13.1 12.4 4.0 81.1 80.0 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 13.2 13.8 13.9 3.5 80.8 79.9 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 10.4 11.5 10.6 3.9 81.8 80.6 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 1 99 100 14.3 15.1 13.9 3.7 81.7 80.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 12.9 13.5 13.4 3.4 81.5 80.5 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 13.2 13.9 14.0 3.7 81.5 80.5 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 14.9 15.5 13.7 3.9 80.9 79.9 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 14 86 100 12.4 12.9 12.4 3.1 77.7 76.7 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 12.4 13.2 11.2 3.1 78.6 77.4 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 13.2 13.4 12.6 2.7 74.5 73.7 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 12.9 14.9 12.6 4.2 87.1 85.8 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 10.5 11.4 11.7 4.0 81.6 80.5 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 12.6 13.0 13.6 3.2 79.3 78.3 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------