***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 7.4 7.8 7.6 0.8 60.3 57.0 5.1 6.8 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 6.5 7.1 7.6 1.0 62.2 58.7 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.3 7.7 0.9 60.6 57.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 -0.3 2.9 5.3 0.6 57.3 55.4 0.1 2.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.0 7.9 5.8 0.6 57.1 55.1 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.9 7.4 5.1 0.3 53.7 53.1 5.2 7.0 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.8 7.4 0.9 61.5 58.1 4.3 5.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 2.6 2.7 5.3 0.6 57.8 55.8 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.8 6.7 0.7 58.4 55.9 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.1 6.0 0.7 57.9 55.7 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.9 5.7 0.5 55.7 54.2 5.3 7.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.3 5.6 0.5 55.8 54.5 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.2 7.8 5.2 0.2 53.0 52.5 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.7 7.1 0.8 59.0 56.3 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 7.6 6.6 5.6 0.7 58.4 56.7 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.4 5.3 0.3 53.8 53.0 5.9 7.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.3 7.3 1.0 62.2 58.8 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 6.2 5.9 0.7 58.2 55.9 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 6.8 7.5 7.8 1.0 62.2 58.7 4.6 6.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 4.3 0.7 58.6 56.6 2.5 4.5 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.2 7.2 0.8 59.3 56.5 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 6.5 7.0 7.4 1.0 62.3 58.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 7.1 7.6 7.9 1.0 61.5 58.1 5.0 6.6 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 8.7 9.0 7.0 0.8 58.9 56.2 6.4 8.1 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.0 6.1 0.8 59.6 56.5 4.6 6.2 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.8 5.1 0.3 53.6 53.4 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 7.8 8.2 6.9 0.8 60.2 56.9 5.4 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.6 7.3 5.5 0.5 56.4 55.1 4.9 6.6 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.5 5.3 0.7 58.1 56.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 6.8 7.3 7.7 0.9 61.7 58.2 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------