***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.0 6.1 0.7 58.7 57.2 3.3 5.1 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 6.4 5.6 6.0 0.9 61.3 59.2 2.8 4.5 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 6.7 7.1 6.2 0.9 60.4 58.4 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.6 1.7 3.9 0.7 58.5 57.1 -1.2 0.8 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.6 4.4 0.6 57.8 56.3 3.8 5.7 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.5 3.6 0.4 54.3 54.0 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.1 5.3 5.9 0.8 60.0 58.3 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -2.1 0.9 3.9 0.7 58.9 56.5 -1.7 0.0 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.2 5.2 0.7 58.5 56.5 4.2 6.2 8.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.1 6.3 4.6 0.7 58.7 56.4 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.6 6.6 4.2 0.6 57.2 55.8 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.5 4.1 0.6 56.9 55.4 3.7 5.7 7.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 6.4 5.9 3.7 0.3 53.6 53.3 3.5 5.5 7.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 8.5 7.4 5.6 0.9 60.4 57.6 4.1 6.1 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.5 4.4 0.8 60.6 58.9 3.2 4.6 5.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.0 6.8 3.9 0.4 55.3 54.6 4.0 6.1 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.3 5.8 0.9 61.2 59.0 2.7 4.2 5.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.7 4.5 0.8 58.8 56.2 2.1 3.8 5.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 7.2 6.4 6.3 1.0 61.9 59.5 3.3 5.2 6.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 0.5 3.8 3.0 0.7 59.0 56.3 0.9 2.8 4.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 6.6 6.8 5.7 0.8 59.0 57.1 3.9 5.8 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.0 6.0 1.0 62.1 59.5 3.1 4.8 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 7.1 6.3 6.4 1.0 62.1 59.4 3.3 5.0 6.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 3.9 7.6 5.5 0.9 60.0 57.3 4.3 6.4 8.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.7 4.6 0.6 58.0 56.4 3.1 4.9 6.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.3 3.7 0.3 54.2 53.8 3.4 5.0 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.5 5.4 0.7 58.0 56.5 3.7 5.7 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.7 4.1 0.7 59.0 57.6 3.2 4.9 6.4 28 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 0.3 3.4 3.9 0.8 58.8 56.1 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 6.5 5.7 6.1 0.9 60.7 58.8 2.9 4.6 6.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------