***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9.1 9.4 9.1 1.4 72.4 67.9 6.2 7.5 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 8.5 9.0 9.1 1.6 75.7 71.0 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 9.8 10.2 9.4 1.6 74.8 69.9 6.8 8.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 24 76 100 4.4 4.8 7.1 1.7 76.5 71.3 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 9.6 10.0 7.6 1.5 73.3 68.5 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 8.9 8.9 6.7 1.2 68.4 64.2 6.1 7.5 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 8.3 8.6 8.9 1.5 73.9 69.3 5.5 6.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 3.1 3.6 7.1 1.6 75.3 69.9 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.8 8.6 1.6 75.1 69.8 7.3 8.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 9.4 9.9 7.9 1.7 75.2 69.8 6.5 7.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.8 10.1 7.6 1.4 72.2 67.7 6.7 8.1 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 9.7 10.0 7.4 1.4 72.2 67.6 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 9.6 9.6 7.1 1.1 67.3 63.5 6.7 8.1 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.8 9.0 1.7 75.7 70.5 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 8.1 8.8 7.8 1.8 81.1 74.9 5.4 6.6 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.3 7.2 1.2 69.1 65.1 7.3 8.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 25 75 100 8.0 8.3 8.8 1.6 75.6 71.0 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 7.6 8.0 7.7 1.6 74.7 69.2 5.1 6.2 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 9.0 9.4 9.4 1.7 76.3 71.4 6.0 7.3 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 6.7 7.3 6.0 1.6 75.5 69.6 3.7 5.1 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 9.8 10.3 9.0 1.6 74.8 69.8 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 8.7 9.0 9.0 1.6 76.0 71.4 5.7 7.0 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 8.9 9.4 9.5 1.7 76.5 71.4 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 10.5 11.0 8.8 1.7 75.1 69.8 7.5 8.9 10.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 8.7 8.9 7.8 1.4 72.8 68.2 5.9 7.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 8.8 8.9 6.7 1.1 68.6 64.6 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 9.6 9.7 8.4 1.3 71.1 66.8 6.7 8.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 8.6 9.1 7.5 1.7 77.3 71.9 5.9 7.1 8.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.4 6.9 7.0 1.6 74.9 69.2 3.5 4.9 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 8.6 9.0 9.2 1.6 74.9 70.2 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------