***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.0 8.6 7.4 62.0 49.5 39.5 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 3.8 8.6 7.6 72.1 51.0 39.8 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.4 10.4 7.4 63.3 48.6 38.1 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 5.7 7.1 5.9 42.4 35.4 27.9 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.3 7.1 6.9 52.4 40.1 31.6 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 71 29 0 100 5.0 7.4 5.5 44.6 37.0 28.6 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 4.5 8.9 7.7 71.6 50.4 40.1 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 8.1 12.0 7.1 54.9 41.9 32.3 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 5.0 7.7 7.6 60.3 45.4 35.5 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.0 9.5 7.9 61.5 44.8 35.3 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 6.0 8.3 6.3 51.7 41.0 31.8 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 5.1 7.3 6.0 50.4 40.6 30.6 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 5.0 7.0 6.3 49.8 38.1 29.4 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.7 14.8 9.4 72.7 50.2 39.2 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 3.6 3.0 3.6 25.5 25.3 19.8 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 5.4 7.1 5.7 46.9 38.4 29.6 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 5.1 11.1 8.1 80.3 55.7 42.6 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.1 10.9 9.0 67.0 46.6 36.9 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 4.8 9.9 7.7 71.0 50.7 39.3 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 5.5 7.9 8.7 54.2 38.6 30.3 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 5.9 9.3 7.6 60.1 47.3 36.9 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.0 11.4 8.5 81.9 55.4 41.7 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 5.2 9.8 7.9 70.0 50.1 38.9 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.8 10.4 8.7 68.5 48.4 38.2 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.1 7.1 8.0 59.3 46.2 37.4 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 5.4 6.7 5.7 41.3 34.9 26.4 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 4.1 8.2 8.4 66.3 49.8 40.6 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 3.6 4.0 4.8 35.8 31.3 24.4 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 9.4 15.8 9.1 65.4 45.4 35.7 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 4.3 8.7 7.5 68.2 49.5 39.0 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------