***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.2 8.1 71.1 48.6 34.8 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.3 5.1 8.6 72.9 50.5 36.7 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.8 9.0 82.5 54.1 39.4 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 4.2 10.0 10.5 84.8 57.1 40.8 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 3.3 8.3 10.5 89.6 58.4 42.3 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 3.2 10.3 11.6 97.9 62.4 46.6 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 2.1 4.2 8.2 69.1 47.8 34.8 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.5 13.1 11.6 92.5 60.1 45.5 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.6 10.9 92.6 59.4 44.2 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.3 11.8 96.1 61.0 46.0 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 3.9 10.3 10.3 96.5 62.2 44.8 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.2 10.5 10.3 93.4 60.9 44.8 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.9 11.0 11.0 95.4 61.7 45.8 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.1 11.9 89.3 57.1 44.2 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 3.6 8.9 10.7 77.9 53.7 37.9 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 3.1 9.5 10.4 96.2 62.3 45.3 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 2.6 5.1 8.5 69.5 48.0 35.3 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.0 13.1 95.9 60.3 46.9 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 2.7 6.5 8.8 76.3 52.0 38.1 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 11.1 15.5 87.8 57.4 46.1 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.2 7.0 9.7 86.2 56.4 41.6 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 3.4 6.6 9.0 72.2 48.8 37.0 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.8 6.4 9.3 81.1 54.0 40.3 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.0 11.5 94.1 59.8 45.3 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.0 5.6 9.6 71.2 47.7 34.7 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.9 7.9 10.0 85.3 58.0 43.2 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.7 4.9 8.8 67.0 45.7 33.6 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 3.2 8.9 10.8 87.4 58.2 41.3 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 6.3 15.8 14.2 94.0 59.7 47.4 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.4 5.2 8.4 73.1 49.6 35.7 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------