***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2015.-06.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.9 12.0 99.5 62.5 51.3 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.4 9.8 12.3 103.0 64.3 51.1 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 4.8 13.8 12.6 103.8 64.2 52.9 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 6.0 14.1 13.3 95.5 60.6 50.6 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.1 13.5 99.2 62.1 51.9 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 3.4 9.8 12.8 97.3 61.2 48.2 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.7 12.1 100.3 63.3 50.6 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.8 17.3 14.4 98.5 62.1 50.4 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.6 14.1 102.3 63.6 53.5 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.5 14.5 14.8 102.2 63.3 52.5 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 12.5 13.2 12.3 97.5 61.4 49.8 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 14.8 15.5 12.1 94.9 60.8 48.7 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.0 12.9 12.3 94.4 59.7 47.9 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 13.2 16.1 15.7 109.0 66.2 53.7 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.2 13.0 89.3 59.2 47.5 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 4.4 11.4 11.6 94.3 59.9 48.2 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.7 12.4 102.8 64.4 51.3 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 14.8 16.4 103.6 63.9 53.1 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.1 12.6 106.3 65.4 51.9 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 15.0 19.7 98.1 62.5 51.1 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.0 12.5 13.1 102.4 63.4 52.8 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 12.1 13.6 110.0 66.9 53.5 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.0 13.3 109.8 66.5 52.7 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 12.2 14.7 15.0 106.2 64.9 53.8 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.2 9.5 13.7 96.3 60.5 51.3 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.1 12.0 90.3 59.4 47.3 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.2 11.0 13.2 97.4 61.3 50.9 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 12.1 12.1 12.6 93.1 60.2 48.6 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 16.8 19.7 17.8 102.7 63.9 52.8 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.4 12.2 101.9 63.8 51.3 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------