***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 7.2 10.4 116.7 69.2 52.5 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.5 8.2 9.5 107.2 66.5 51.0 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.2 9.8 10.3 111.1 67.3 50.3 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.6 15.1 11.2 123.4 71.2 52.0 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.5 12.1 11.3 123.9 71.2 52.3 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 2.4 9.7 11.4 133.7 73.7 54.9 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.6 9.4 108.2 67.0 52.1 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 16.3 10.7 106.5 65.9 50.7 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.9 9.3 11.6 118.9 69.6 51.0 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.3 12.0 11.5 113.5 67.9 51.3 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.2 10.2 120.6 70.2 52.3 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.2 11.2 9.6 113.8 68.2 51.9 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 4.0 12.1 10.9 131.5 73.2 55.2 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 4.8 16.1 12.8 114.0 67.8 50.6 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.1 11.6 10.6 109.5 67.3 48.3 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.6 12.6 10.4 130.7 73.0 54.2 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.2 10.0 9.4 110.0 67.4 51.7 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.9 10.9 12.7 109.0 66.3 51.2 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.0 9.6 106.6 66.2 50.3 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.4 11.2 13.9 99.3 63.6 50.3 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 3.8 10.9 11.1 118.9 69.7 51.2 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.6 10.7 9.7 109.3 66.9 51.3 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.8 11.2 10.3 108.7 66.4 49.7 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 4.9 13.7 11.9 110.7 66.7 49.9 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.5 9.2 11.9 120.1 70.4 53.3 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.7 9.8 114.8 68.7 52.2 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 6.7 9.4 11.3 116.6 69.3 53.2 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.1 10.6 10.7 121.4 70.5 50.9 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 14.2 16.6 13.4 105.6 65.3 51.2 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.9 8.8 9.7 108.6 66.9 51.0 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------