***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-13.12.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 22.9 31.8 38.0 85.6 46.0 42.2 24.0 34.3 46.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 23.2 33.2 38.0 88.0 47.2 42.5 25.4 34.9 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 27.1 40.0 39.3 89.2 48.5 44.4 29.1 41.2 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 35.4 45.3 41.0 82.9 43.7 41.4 37.1 50.4 65.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 29.2 41.7 42.2 88.5 47.8 44.7 31.0 43.4 57.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 27.9 40.7 41.3 90.0 49.4 45.8 28.3 41.2 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 23.3 32.1 37.5 86.2 45.8 41.4 25.3 34.6 45.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 44.3 60.4 43.8 87.3 47.2 44.5 45.4 63.5 84.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 24.8 38.0 44.2 92.3 50.6 46.9 25.7 37.6 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 33.5 48.0 46.1 92.5 50.8 47.3 34.2 47.4 62.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.3 42.2 39.0 89.0 48.8 45.2 28.6 43.3 61.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 34.6 48.3 38.0 86.0 46.5 43.4 35.5 51.8 70.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 30.3 44.0 40.5 89.0 48.2 44.8 30.2 46.1 65.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 40.2 60.2 49.9 96.0 53.0 47.2 41.9 57.3 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 33.1 39.1 37.9 72.7 37.6 36.2 34.7 53.3 76.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 29.2 42.3 38.0 88.1 47.9 44.4 30.2 44.1 60.5 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 24.2 35.2 38.4 89.5 48.6 43.4 26.1 36.0 47.4 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 35.5 52.3 51.2 93.8 51.9 48.1 37.7 50.9 65.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 26.9 39.1 38.7 89.5 48.3 43.5 29.3 40.1 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 38.2 50.2 57.8 85.1 45.7 43.5 38.5 54.6 73.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 27.3 39.4 41.5 90.2 49.1 45.4 28.9 40.0 52.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 29.0 42.4 40.7 92.5 50.9 45.3 30.9 41.9 54.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 26.7 39.4 40.9 92.0 50.1 45.0 28.7 39.4 51.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 33.5 52.1 47.2 94.6 52.3 47.6 35.2 49.8 67.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 23.3 30.7 43.2 84.3 43.7 41.2 24.8 34.4 45.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.3 35.9 37.5 79.1 40.7 39.2 30.0 44.4 61.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 24.6 33.1 41.7 85.0 44.4 41.1 25.8 36.9 49.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 27.3 36.5 38.8 80.8 42.9 40.3 28.7 42.4 58.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 52.6 74.8 54.5 92.3 50.9 47.5 54.1 73.9 96.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 23.1 33.2 37.7 87.1 46.7 42.4 25.4 35.4 46.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------