***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 10.6 8.5 9.4 -1.1 38.4 38.8 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 9.8 7.8 9.6 -1.1 38.0 38.4 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.1 8.3 9.7 -1.4 36.5 37.0 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 1.2 1.8 5.3 -1.8 31.8 32.8 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.2 7.9 7.6 -1.6 34.0 34.8 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.8 7.1 6.3 -1.8 32.5 34.0 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 9.7 7.7 9.5 -1.1 38.7 39.1 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 0.1 0.4 6.4 -2.1 30.3 31.9 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.6 8.3 8.6 -1.7 33.7 34.5 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 6.8 7.4 7.3 -2.0 32.3 33.5 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.3 7.7 8.1 -1.9 32.6 33.8 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 7.3 7.4 7.0 -2.0 30.7 32.2 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 7.3 7.7 8.0 -2.0 31.6 33.2 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.6 8.6 9.2 -1.6 35.9 36.5 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.4 6.6 7.4 -1.5 32.4 33.5 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 7.9 8.3 7.4 -1.9 31.9 33.3 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 9.1 7.4 9.2 -1.0 39.6 39.8 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.0 6.4 6.9 -2.1 32.0 33.2 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.2 7.8 9.7 -1.2 37.2 37.6 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.6 3.8 5.4 -2.2 29.9 31.8 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 11.3 8.3 9.3 -1.5 35.1 35.8 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 9.6 7.8 9.5 -1.0 39.4 39.7 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 10.3 7.8 9.8 -1.3 36.5 37.0 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 7.9 8.6 8.9 -1.7 34.3 35.0 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 10.0 7.8 8.3 -1.3 36.6 37.1 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.3 6.6 -1.8 31.2 33.2 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 10.7 8.7 9.1 -1.1 38.3 38.7 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 6.2 6.6 6.2 -1.9 29.9 31.3 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.4 3.9 6.5 -2.1 32.0 33.3 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.9 7.8 9.6 -1.2 37.8 38.1 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------