***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 9.1 7.7 7.3 -0.5 44.7 45.1 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.5 7.3 -0.5 44.0 44.5 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.0 8.5 7.6 -0.7 43.0 43.8 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.9 3.1 4.9 0.0 49.7 49.3 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 6.8 8.4 6.0 -0.7 42.9 44.0 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 6.1 7.2 4.7 -1.2 38.9 40.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 5.9 7.3 7.2 -0.5 44.5 44.9 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 0.4 1.3 5.0 -1.1 38.8 41.2 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.4 9.1 6.8 -0.7 42.8 44.1 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 6.5 7.8 5.8 -1.0 40.6 42.4 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.9 8.2 6.2 -1.0 40.3 42.1 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.0 5.5 -1.2 38.4 40.7 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 6.8 7.7 5.5 -1.5 35.6 38.3 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.0 8.9 7.1 -0.7 43.5 44.5 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.8 7.8 6.9 0.5 55.7 54.3 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.6 5.5 -1.2 38.7 40.7 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 8.3 7.1 7.1 -0.4 45.7 45.9 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 6.0 5.5 -1.1 39.7 41.9 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.3 7.7 7.4 -0.6 43.4 44.1 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 4.5 3.8 -1.5 36.2 39.5 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 6.9 8.6 7.4 -0.6 43.6 44.5 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.9 7.7 7.3 -0.4 45.7 45.9 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.5 7.6 -0.7 42.8 43.8 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.9 7.0 -0.8 42.1 43.5 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.9 6.3 -0.4 45.2 45.4 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.5 7.3 4.8 -1.4 35.6 38.8 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.1 8.7 6.9 -0.5 44.3 44.7 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 8.5 7.9 5.8 0.0 50.5 50.0 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.3 4.5 4.9 -1.3 38.2 40.9 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 8.8 7.4 7.3 -0.6 43.4 44.1 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------