***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.5 6.7 6.6 -0.1 49.3 49.8 5.1 6.8 8.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 6.1 6.6 0.1 50.7 51.3 4.4 6.0 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.9 7.3 7.1 0.0 50.0 50.4 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 2.8 2.1 4.3 0.1 50.7 51.0 0.1 2.1 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.2 5.3 0.0 50.1 50.6 5.3 7.2 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.0 4.8 0.0 49.9 50.0 5.2 7.0 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.9 6.6 0.1 50.9 51.5 4.3 5.8 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.5 1.8 4.9 -0.1 48.8 49.7 0.3 1.9 3.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 8.7 8.0 6.2 0.1 50.6 50.8 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.3 5.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 5.5 7.3 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.1 5.4 -0.1 48.7 49.5 5.3 7.3 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 8.3 7.3 5.1 -0.3 47.4 48.7 5.6 7.6 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.1 4.7 -0.3 47.0 48.2 5.5 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.9 6.7 0.1 50.9 51.1 5.9 7.8 9.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.0 5.0 0.0 50.3 50.9 4.5 5.9 7.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 8.6 7.7 5.0 -0.2 48.3 49.1 5.9 7.9 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.6 5.5 6.7 0.2 52.5 52.5 3.8 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 6.1 5.5 5.7 0.0 50.1 50.5 4.0 5.5 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.9 6.3 6.9 0.0 50.4 51.1 4.6 6.3 7.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 5.1 4.6 4.1 0.0 50.4 51.1 2.5 4.5 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 7.9 7.3 6.6 0.0 50.4 50.6 5.5 7.3 8.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 6.5 6.1 6.7 0.2 52.3 52.2 4.4 5.9 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 7.2 6.6 7.3 0.0 50.2 50.7 5.0 6.6 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.2 6.6 0.1 50.6 50.8 6.4 8.1 9.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.7 6.2 5.4 0.0 50.1 50.3 4.6 6.2 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.9 7.2 4.5 -0.3 47.1 48.5 5.8 7.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.1 6.2 0.0 49.8 50.1 5.4 7.1 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.3 6.7 4.6 0.0 50.3 50.6 4.9 6.6 8.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.6 5.2 0.0 50.0 50.7 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.2 6.6 0.0 49.9 50.7 4.6 6.2 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------