***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.0 7.4 7.5 -0.1 48.7 48.0 6.2 7.5 8.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.4 6.9 7.5 -0.1 48.7 48.2 5.7 7.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 8.6 8.0 7.8 -0.2 47.6 47.2 6.8 8.2 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.5 4.6 -0.1 49.0 48.6 1.2 2.6 3.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 8.5 7.8 6.0 -0.2 47.0 46.9 6.7 8.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.1 5.2 -0.3 45.0 44.9 6.1 7.5 8.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.7 7.4 -0.1 49.0 48.3 5.5 6.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.2 1.3 5.3 -0.5 43.5 44.1 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.1 8.5 6.9 -0.2 47.4 47.1 7.3 8.7 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 8.3 7.5 6.1 -0.3 45.5 45.6 6.5 7.8 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.7 7.7 6.2 -0.4 44.7 45.0 6.7 8.1 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.7 7.6 5.7 -0.5 42.5 43.3 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.4 5.7 -0.6 41.4 42.2 6.7 8.1 9.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.4 7.4 -0.1 48.1 47.7 7.2 8.6 9.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.7 6.0 0.1 51.7 50.8 5.4 6.6 7.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.2 5.7 -0.5 43.4 44.0 7.3 8.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.4 7.3 0.0 50.4 49.4 5.2 6.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 6.6 5.9 6.0 -0.3 45.3 45.5 5.1 6.2 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.2 7.6 -0.1 48.2 47.8 6.0 7.3 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 5.6 4.6 4.4 -0.5 43.4 44.1 3.7 5.1 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 8.7 8.0 7.5 -0.1 47.9 47.4 6.8 8.2 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 7.5 7.0 7.5 0.0 50.6 49.5 5.7 7.0 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.2 7.9 -0.2 47.7 47.5 6.1 7.3 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 9.4 8.7 7.2 -0.2 47.0 46.8 7.5 8.9 10.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 7.6 7.1 6.3 -0.1 48.8 48.1 5.9 7.2 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.1 7.1 5.1 -0.6 41.3 42.5 6.5 7.7 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 8.5 8.0 7.1 -0.1 48.8 48.1 6.7 8.1 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.0 5.2 -0.1 48.6 48.2 5.9 7.1 8.2 28 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 5.3 4.5 5.5 -0.4 44.7 45.1 3.5 4.9 6.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 7.5 6.9 7.5 -0.1 48.1 47.7 5.8 7.0 8.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------