***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 24 76 100 16.5 26.9 21.9 216.5 88.3 73.9 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 18.8 34.3 21.8 238.1 90.3 75.3 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 20.9 35.0 23.7 233.2 90.0 75.5 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 24.7 41.2 29.4 210.8 87.9 73.1 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 22 78 100 22.0 38.6 25.5 223.8 88.8 73.6 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 25.4 42.5 23.9 213.7 87.7 72.2 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 17.3 28.3 20.9 228.3 89.3 74.7 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 36.9 73.4 31.3 247.8 91.5 79.7 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 19 81 100 21.7 41.2 25.8 234.0 90.3 75.4 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 24.9 48.6 30.3 251.0 91.9 79.2 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 21 79 100 25.7 48.4 27.5 237.7 90.4 76.3 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 30.0 61.5 27.9 238.7 90.5 77.6 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 27.0 53.4 28.7 232.0 90.0 75.2 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 31.0 55.0 31.3 254.1 91.9 81.1 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 28 72 100 27.3 52.0 29.8 217.0 88.0 72.0 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 24.7 45.3 25.9 223.6 89.0 73.7 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 21 79 100 18.0 28.6 20.8 221.8 88.5 73.8 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 30.0 60.0 31.8 256.7 92.3 81.5 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 16 84 100 21.2 38.4 22.5 241.2 90.8 76.1 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 34.0 71.4 35.6 251.7 91.9 81.2 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 20 80 100 20.6 35.8 24.7 228.0 89.8 74.7 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 19.7 33.0 21.9 223.3 88.8 74.2 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 20.1 35.7 23.7 240.6 90.8 77.2 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 14 86 100 24.7 46.6 28.9 250.8 91.6 79.9 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 16.5 27.1 23.9 208.1 87.1 71.5 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 26.9 51.0 27.0 221.8 88.8 73.3 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 25 75 100 17.0 28.0 21.8 208.8 87.4 72.4 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 21.8 40.6 28.6 219.3 88.6 73.4 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 11 89 100 42.7 83.1 33.0 254.4 92.4 82.1 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 18.1 31.5 21.7 234.8 90.1 75.2 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------