***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 6.9 11.7 83.9 56.7 45.6 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.8 6.0 10.5 80.0 55.1 44.5 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.0 12.4 90.6 59.0 47.6 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 4.9 9.3 12.7 77.8 54.3 43.4 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.4 14.7 98.2 62.1 49.7 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.5 11.7 14.9 109.9 66.5 52.5 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.5 5.5 10.4 80.3 55.6 44.3 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.4 12.7 14.5 90.9 59.2 46.3 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.2 7.9 13.7 94.1 60.5 47.3 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 3.5 9.4 14.7 96.4 61.3 48.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 10.3 14.6 98.9 62.1 49.3 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.2 10.3 13.6 93.2 60.1 47.0 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.9 12.6 15.4 107.9 65.4 52.0 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.7 13.2 16.7 99.9 62.7 49.9 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.3 10.9 67.9 51.8 40.4 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.6 14.4 99.6 62.5 49.6 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.2 10.1 78.3 54.9 43.0 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 4.6 10.8 14.9 93.6 59.9 47.3 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 7.6 11.1 82.7 56.2 45.6 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 10.3 16.5 81.7 55.1 43.7 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.8 13.2 92.9 60.5 48.1 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.0 8.2 10.8 79.7 55.2 43.4 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 8.0 7.6 12.5 89.2 58.5 47.5 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 11.0 11.9 15.2 99.1 62.2 49.3 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.5 8.2 14.4 92.1 59.8 48.5 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.4 9.0 14.9 98.0 62.0 49.9 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.9 13.0 88.0 58.4 47.2 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.8 8.1 12.1 77.9 54.8 43.0 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 15.3 15.8 90.9 58.8 46.6 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.9 6.3 10.8 80.8 55.3 45.0 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------