***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.11.2020.-06.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.5 10.1 10.4 86.5 57.7 45.8 3.9 7.8 13.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 3.4 7.7 9.5 84.0 56.8 43.9 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.8 11.5 10.4 90.6 59.1 47.6 4.2 8.4 14.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.3 12.5 11.5 83.9 56.4 44.3 5.7 10.2 16.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 12.0 10.8 11.1 84.0 55.8 45.3 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.5 8.7 11.4 87.8 58.1 44.6 3.1 6.5 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.6 7.4 9.1 78.9 54.7 42.0 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.2 14.1 12.0 81.9 55.1 43.9 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.5 11.2 83.3 54.9 44.8 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 12.6 10.8 11.7 82.0 54.6 44.2 4.7 9.2 15.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.9 10.9 84.1 56.3 44.4 3.9 8.5 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.3 13.0 10.9 82.9 55.8 43.8 4.9 10.4 18.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 4.9 10.5 10.8 79.0 53.6 42.1 4.6 9.2 15.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.1 12.3 12.1 86.9 56.9 46.0 5.7 10.0 16.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.7 13.6 11.7 85.1 58.2 42.6 3.6 9.2 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 4.2 9.9 10.9 83.5 55.9 43.8 3.7 7.9 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 3.5 8.0 9.4 81.5 55.9 42.1 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.0 11.6 79.7 53.6 44.2 5.4 9.8 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.9 9.7 86.6 57.7 45.4 3.8 7.0 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 13.4 11.8 16.0 82.6 55.5 44.8 5.0 9.8 16.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.1 10.9 87.1 57.1 47.1 3.9 7.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.4 9.8 84.6 57.0 43.8 2.9 6.4 11.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.6 9.9 88.1 58.0 46.3 3.7 6.7 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.3 10.9 10.9 83.2 55.2 45.1 4.8 9.2 15.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 9.0 8.5 11.7 85.1 56.6 46.4 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.6 11.2 79.8 55.2 44.5 3.2 7.0 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 10.4 9.5 10.8 83.5 56.0 44.9 4.4 7.9 12.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.8 11.1 84.8 57.1 43.1 3.5 8.1 15.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 14.3 12.6 80.3 53.8 44.4 6.8 12.7 21.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.7 9.9 87.0 58.0 45.0 3.7 6.8 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------