***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.12.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.1 4.6 9.9 79.0 54.2 40.5 2.2 4.1 6.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.0 6.3 10.0 86.4 58.5 42.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.6 6.4 9.6 77.0 54.1 40.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 4.5 9.4 11.1 80.2 55.0 43.6 4.6 8.2 13.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 4.0 7.6 10.5 77.4 52.8 42.8 4.3 7.0 10.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.2 4.3 9.0 71.6 49.6 38.2 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 2.4 7.2 10.1 87.6 58.7 42.7 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 7.7 12.0 10.5 71.6 50.2 41.5 8.3 12.0 16.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.8 5.7 10.8 77.1 52.4 42.3 2.9 5.3 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.7 7.2 10.7 72.9 50.1 41.3 4.0 7.2 11.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.7 5.7 9.8 74.8 51.6 42.7 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.0 9.4 73.9 51.3 42.0 3.9 6.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.9 6.7 9.7 74.8 50.9 41.3 3.9 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 4.4 9.9 11.4 74.5 52.9 42.1 4.6 9.0 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 2.8 8.1 11.6 83.2 57.7 43.2 2.7 6.0 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.5 6.6 9.5 75.5 51.5 42.0 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Nis 06700G01 68 32 0 100 2.5 8.0 10.3 92.2 60.6 43.4 2.8 5.6 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 3.5 6.8 11.1 72.1 50.0 40.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.0 7.7 9.7 83.2 57.1 42.3 3.4 6.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 5.0 8.4 14.2 73.0 51.1 41.7 5.4 8.2 11.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.1 6.8 10.1 76.6 52.8 41.7 3.6 6.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.1 8.6 10.3 90.1 59.7 44.1 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.4 7.8 9.6 77.8 54.8 41.6 3.6 6.7 11.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.4 8.9 10.5 73.5 51.8 41.3 4.7 8.4 13.4 28 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 2.6 5.6 10.8 77.6 53.5 41.8 2.7 5.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 3.9 7.5 10.2 76.2 52.9 41.8 3.9 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 2.3 5.7 10.6 81.0 55.1 41.6 2.4 4.7 8.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.6 10.4 80.0 55.1 43.0 3.0 5.6 9.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.3 11.6 12.1 72.9 50.9 41.6 6.9 11.3 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.4 6.3 9.9 82.7 56.8 42.0 2.6 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------