***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 12.11.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-13.12.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 39.7 45.2 53.9 110.9 64.6 56.2 24.0 34.3 46.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 39.3 46.4 51.8 114.7 66.8 59.0 25.4 34.9 45.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 47.6 58.0 56.1 117.3 68.3 59.3 29.1 41.2 55.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 57.2 65.0 64.7 111.9 65.2 56.2 37.1 50.4 65.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 50.3 59.5 61.8 116.3 67.9 58.4 31.0 43.4 57.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 48.3 59.6 59.2 117.7 68.8 58.5 28.3 41.2 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 39.1 44.5 50.5 111.8 65.1 57.6 25.3 34.6 45.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 89.8 89.4 68.2 118.1 68.9 61.8 45.4 63.5 84.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 44.3 53.7 61.5 116.0 67.7 58.4 25.7 37.6 51.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 54.0 66.6 67.4 119.8 69.9 61.4 34.2 47.4 62.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 51.2 67.0 62.8 119.9 69.9 61.0 28.6 43.3 61.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 60.1 75.4 61.8 118.5 69.1 61.5 35.5 51.8 70.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 54.4 72.7 64.6 121.2 70.9 61.7 30.2 46.1 65.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 77.5 82.1 71.6 122.7 71.8 63.2 41.9 57.3 74.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 35.2 74.4 64.0 111.5 64.9 55.3 34.7 53.3 76.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 51.2 63.7 60.7 117.4 68.6 59.4 30.2 44.1 60.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 41.3 46.8 50.7 112.4 65.5 57.8 26.1 36.0 47.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 57.3 69.8 69.5 119.0 69.6 61.6 37.7 50.9 65.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 45.1 54.1 53.0 116.3 67.7 59.8 29.3 40.1 52.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 63.3 73.5 82.3 113.6 66.2 60.3 38.5 54.6 73.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 45.9 54.3 58.9 116.1 67.8 58.1 28.9 40.0 52.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 47.6 54.5 52.8 113.8 66.3 58.5 30.9 41.9 54.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 44.3 53.9 55.6 117.4 68.5 60.2 28.7 39.4 51.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 56.5 72.8 65.6 120.7 70.5 61.7 35.2 49.8 67.0 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 39.6 44.4 60.7 111.0 64.6 55.3 24.8 34.4 45.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 51.5 63.5 63.2 115.6 67.4 59.6 30.0 44.4 61.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 42.6 47.7 56.1 109.8 63.9 55.4 25.8 36.9 49.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 50.6 59.4 62.1 113.8 66.3 56.9 28.7 42.4 58.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 83.4 100.5 73.5 117.4 68.6 61.5 54.1 73.9 96.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 40.0 47.0 52.2 113.9 66.3 58.5 25.4 35.4 46.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------