***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 5 95 100 4.8 5.4 6.2 3.2 81.7 80.7 0.5 2.1 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 3 97 100 4.3 5.0 6.0 3.4 82.0 80.9 -0.5 1.3 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 6.2 6.9 5.9 3.3 82.9 81.9 1.4 3.2 4.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 3 97 100 1.5 2.5 3.5 3.0 83.3 82.2 -3.9 -1.9 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 3 97 100 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.0 83.6 82.6 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 2.9 3.8 2.1 2.9 85.6 84.7 -1.3 0.2 1.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 3 97 100 4.3 5.1 6.1 3.5 82.7 81.5 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 2 98 100 -1.1 -0.4 2.8 3.1 82.3 81.4 -6.1 -4.3 -2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 1 99 100 4.3 5.2 4.4 3.0 84.7 83.6 0.1 1.7 3.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 3.5 4.1 3.3 3.1 82.4 81.4 -0.6 0.9 2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 3.3 4.2 3.7 3.1 84.8 83.8 -0.8 0.7 2.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 2 98 100 2.3 3.1 3.4 3.1 84.3 83.3 -1.4 -0.1 1.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 3.2 4.3 3.2 3.1 86.4 85.3 -0.9 0.6 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 5 95 100 4.1 4.7 4.5 3.2 82.1 81.1 0.1 1.6 3.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 3.7 4.7 4.7 3.1 85.5 84.2 0.1 1.5 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 4.0 5.0 3.4 3.1 86.2 85.1 0.0 1.4 2.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 6 94 100 3.9 4.5 5.8 3.3 81.5 80.3 -0.4 1.2 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 6 94 100 1.2 1.4 2.4 2.8 79.8 78.8 -2.1 -0.8 0.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 1 99 100 4.1 4.7 5.9 3.4 82.7 81.7 -0.3 1.3 2.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 2 98 100 -0.5 0.2 1.3 3.1 81.7 80.7 -5.6 -3.7 -1.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 4.3 5.0 5.4 3.0 82.8 81.8 -0.3 1.4 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 2 98 100 3.5 4.1 5.8 3.3 81.8 80.7 -0.8 0.8 2.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 3.8 4.6 5.6 3.4 84.1 83.2 -0.4 1.1 2.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 3 97 100 3.0 3.5 4.0 2.9 81.5 80.5 -0.7 0.7 2.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 4.2 4.8 4.9 3.1 82.5 81.5 0.2 1.6 3.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 3.1 4.0 3.4 3.2 86.3 85.0 -0.5 0.8 2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 5.1 6.1 5.6 3.3 83.4 82.2 -0.4 1.6 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 2.4 3.2 3.9 2.9 83.8 82.7 -1.4 0.0 1.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 1.9 2.4 1.8 2.8 80.0 79.1 -3.3 -1.3 0.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 4.8 5.5 6.1 3.4 82.2 81.2 -0.1 1.7 3.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------