***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 13.11.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 12.1 12.2 11.5 2.3 70.7 69.9 7.4 9.5 11.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 23 77 100 11.5 11.7 11.7 2.7 73.8 73.0 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 24 76 100 12.8 13.1 12.1 2.8 73.9 72.9 7.6 9.9 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.9 8.9 2.2 70.2 69.2 1.7 4.0 6.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 12.7 12.9 10.5 2.7 73.3 72.3 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 11.9 12.2 9.6 2.7 73.4 72.2 6.9 9.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 11.4 11.5 11.4 2.7 73.4 72.7 6.8 8.7 10.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 14 86 100 5.3 5.6 10.3 3.3 77.0 75.9 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 18 82 100 13.9 14.2 11.7 3.0 75.5 74.4 8.0 10.4 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 13.0 13.3 11.1 3.3 76.0 74.9 7.3 9.6 11.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 13.4 13.9 10.9 3.2 76.3 75.2 7.6 10.0 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 12 88 100 13.5 13.9 10.6 3.2 77.4 76.3 7.5 9.9 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 22 78 100 13.1 13.5 10.6 2.9 74.9 73.7 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 12 88 100 14.3 14.7 12.4 3.7 77.8 76.6 7.9 10.4 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 10.7 10.8 10.0 2.1 72.1 71.3 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 22 78 100 13.5 14.0 10.5 3.0 75.4 74.3 8.3 10.5 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 10.9 11.0 11.3 2.7 73.8 73.1 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 11.4 11.7 10.8 3.3 75.2 74.2 6.2 8.4 10.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 12.1 12.3 12.0 2.9 75.0 74.1 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 16 84 100 9.8 10.0 9.0 3.1 75.3 74.2 4.1 6.4 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 13.0 13.1 11.8 2.7 72.8 71.8 7.8 10.1 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 11.8 12.1 11.7 2.9 75.4 74.5 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 12.4 12.6 12.3 3.2 77.0 76.1 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 15 85 100 14.0 14.3 12.0 3.4 76.2 75.1 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 11.1 11.3 10.3 2.1 68.7 67.8 7.1 9.1 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 15 85 100 12.3 12.4 9.7 2.7 75.3 74.2 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 12.2 12.3 11.0 2.3 70.0 69.2 7.8 9.9 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 11.6 11.9 9.7 2.3 71.5 70.5 6.6 8.9 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 9.8 10.1 10.2 3.3 75.9 74.9 3.9 6.3 8.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 11.5 11.6 11.7 2.7 73.3 72.5 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------